NASDAQ: HFWA · Regional Banks
Heritage Financial (HFWA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Heritage Financial (HFWA) at $20.41 a share. The stock last closed at $28.14, which puts the model's fair value 27.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Heritage Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Heritage Financial Corporation operates as the parent company for Heritage Bank, providing a comprehensive range of financial services to individuals and small to mid-sized businesses throughout the United States.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $20.41 a share. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $20.97, meaning the fair value moved -2.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $17.12 to $24.89, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The model compares Heritage Financial Corporation with Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. (CFFN), Preferred Bank (PFBC), Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC), Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP), Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF), and Hanmi Financial Corporation (HAFC). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, include -0.1% on 23 Jul 2026 and +1.2% on 22 Jan 2026. The median size, ignoring direction, was 1.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HFWA?
The calibrated range for HFWA over 63 trading days is $17.12 to $24.89. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $15.84 to $25.81. In 11% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HFWA compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Heritage Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFFN Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. | $8.58 | $8.10 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | $106.48 | $140.79 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | $59.60 | $62.23 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation | $98.89 | $112.19 | +13.4% | Undervalued |
| CPF Central Pacific Financial Corp. | $36.42 | $40.77 | +11.9% | Undervalued |
| TRST TrustCo Bank Corp NY | $55.69 | $45.56 | -18.2% | Low evidence grade |
| HAFC Hanmi Financial Corporation | $31.67 | $38.68 | +22.1% | Undervalued |
| TFIN Triumph Financial, Inc. | $62.18 | $16.56 | -73.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does HFWA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Heritage Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How HFWA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -0.1% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -3.2% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | +1.2% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +0.6% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -6.1% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +5.0% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | +0.2% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +2.1% |
Heritage Financial at a glance
Heritage Financial Corporation operates as the parent company for Heritage Bank, providing a comprehensive range of financial services to individuals and small to mid-sized businesses throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.54
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Heritage Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HFWA was $20.97. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $20.41, a change of -2.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Heritage Financial's valuation
Is Heritage Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HFWA reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $20.41 a share against a last close of $28.14, a gap of -27.5%.
What is HFWA's fair value?
$20.41 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $15.84 to $25.81.
What price range does the model give HFWA?
$17.12 to $24.89 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Heritage Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HFWA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.1% around the report of 24 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HFWA is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.