NYSE: CHH · Travel Lodging
Choice Hotels International (CHH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Choice Hotels International (CHH) at $104.24 a share. The stock last closed at $118.94, which puts the model's fair value 12.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Choice Hotels International, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $102.64 to $104.24 (+1.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $118.94 is 12.4% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 4 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 10% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CHH?
The calibrated range for CHH over 63 trading days is $106.56 to $136.14. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CHH's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $74.27 to $138.73. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a prominent global hotel franchisor. It is also known as Choice Hotels and conducts its business through various subsidiary entities.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $104.24 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $102.64, so the fair value moved +1.6%. In the model's own words, "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $106.56 to $136.14. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium, based on how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model gives Choice Hotels an overall quality score of 56 out of 100 against comparable companies. Profitability is the highest factor at 91, with ROIC of 15.2% against a peer median of 8.5%. Earnings quality is the lowest at 20, with FCF / net income of 0.68x against a peer median of 1.97x. Growth quality scores 32, with trailing revenue growth of 0.8% against a peer median of 3.7%. The model compares the company with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (WH), Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) and Marriott International, Inc. (MAR).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CHH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Choice Hotels International's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CHH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.7% over one month.
On 2 Nov 2026 CHH moved 6.7% in one session, against the 2.8% a day that options had priced: 2.4 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CHH's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CHH
How does CHH score on business quality?
Choice Hotels International's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 15.2%ROIC | 8.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 20 | 0.68xFCF / net income | 1.97x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 32 | 0.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 71 | 2.6%Net buybacks / market value | 5.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 65 | 3.36xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.00x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does CHH compare with similar companies?
The companies in travel lodging closest to Choice Hotels International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $79.08 | $65.77 | -16.8% | Overvalued |
| HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. | $41.76 | $29.27 | -29.9% | Low evidence grade |
| H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $185.44 | $154.76 | -16.5% | Overvalued |
| HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $363.83 | $308.90 | -15.1% | Overvalued |
| MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $416.38 | $362.89 | -12.8% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CHH, the peer-implied price, is $85.86 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Choice Hotels International at a glance
Choice Hotels International, Inc., also known as Choice Hotels, operates as a prominent global hotel franchisor, conducting its extensive business through its various subsidiary entities.
- Market value
- $5.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Lodging
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CHH was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Choice Hotels International on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CHH was $102.64. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $104.24, a change of +1.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Choice Hotels International's valuation
Is Choice Hotels International stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CHH reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $104.24 a share against a last close of $118.94, a gap of -12.4%.
What is CHH's fair value?
$104.24 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $74.27 to $138.73.
What price range does the model give CHH?
$106.56 to $136.14 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Choice Hotels International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.2% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHH is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CHH
The model holds no idea open on CHH today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CHH with their outcomes. A free account is enough.