NYSE: HLT · Travel Lodging
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) fair value and price range
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Hilton Worldwide (HLT) at $288.17 a share. The stock last closed at $319.36, which puts the model's fair value 9.8% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership.
On 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $288.17 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $280.88; the fair value moved +2.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $296.73 to $363.14. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict was shown.
The overall quality score was 65 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared it with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (WH) and Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 2.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HLT?
The calibrated range for HLT over 63 trading days is $296.73 to $363.14. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HLT's own options imply (28% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $185.67 to $431.67. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HLT score on business quality?
Hilton Worldwide's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 30.6%ROIC | 19.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 31 | 1.27xFCF / net income | 1.66x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 66 | 7.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 79 | 4.7%Net buybacks / market value | 3.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 22 | 4.21xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 86 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.2 pts |
How does HLT compare with similar companies?
The companies in travel lodging closest to Hilton Worldwide in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $358.96 | $318.73 | -11.2% | Low evidence grade |
| H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $158.90 | $133.10 | -16.2% | Low evidence grade |
| WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $71.79 | $62.96 | -12.3% | Fairly valued |
| CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $102.50 | $102.70 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
When does HLT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hilton Worldwide's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HLT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.2% over one month.
How HLT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -2.8% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -5.4% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -0.5% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +0.6% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -2.3% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +1.8% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +4.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -1.2% |
Hilton Worldwide at a glance
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership.
- Market value
- $70.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Lodging
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $13.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.49
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hilton Worldwide on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HLT was $280.88. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $288.17, a change of +2.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hilton Worldwide's valuation
Is Hilton Worldwide stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts HLT's fair value at $288.17 a share against a last close of $319.36, as of 28 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is HLT's fair value?
$288.17 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $185.67 to $431.67.
What price range does the model give HLT?
$296.73 to $363.14 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Hilton Worldwide report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HLT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.4% around the report of 28 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HLT is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.