NASDAQ: CHRW · Integrated Freight & Logistics
C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) at $142.94 a share. The stock last closed at $157.72, which puts the model's fair value 9.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries.
Faircurve's model on 30 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $142.94 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a +1.4% move from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $140.92. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $119.92 to $174.29, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 62 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score was 90, earnings quality 29, growth quality 47, capital discipline 84, balance sheet 56, and stability 55. The model compared C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. with FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., Landstar System, Inc., GXO Logistics, Inc., FedEx Corporation, and United Parcel Service, Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 8.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CHRW?
The calibrated range for CHRW over 63 trading days is $119.92 to $174.29. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $106.94 to $189.67. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CHRW score on business quality?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 90 | 19.7%ROIC | 8.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 29 | 1.06xFCF / net income | 1.58x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 47 | -8.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 84 | 3.7%Net buybacks / market value | 2.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 1.82xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.45x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 55 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.5 pts |
How does CHRW compare with similar companies?
The companies in integrated freight & logistics closest to C.H. Robinson Worldwide in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | $112.89 | $94.45 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $234.20 | $278.61 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $192.47 | $183.65 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $173.48 | $148.22 | -14.6% | Fairly valued |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $46.56 | $43.84 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | $290.36 | $309.09 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $93.02 | $119.00 | +27.9% | Undervalued |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $16.76 | $17.65 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
All integrated freight & logistics stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CHRW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CHRW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -13.2% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -3.3% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +7.4% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +20.9% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +15.6% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +2.2% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | -8.5% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -4.6% |
C.H. Robinson Worldwide at a glance
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries.
- Market value
- $17.3B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $19.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.70
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices C.H. Robinson Worldwide on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CHRW was $140.92. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $142.94, a change of +1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about C.H. Robinson Worldwide's valuation
Is C.H. Robinson Worldwide stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CHRW reads as Fairly valued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $142.94 a share against a last close of $157.72, a gap of -9.4%.
What is CHRW's fair value?
$142.94 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $106.94 to $189.67.
What price range does the model give CHRW?
$119.92 to $174.29 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does C.H. Robinson Worldwide report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHRW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.9% around the report of 29 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHRW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.