NYSE: GXO · Integrated Freight & Logistics
GXO Logistics (GXO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values GXO Logistics (GXO) at $50.01 a share. The stock last closed at $55.18, which puts the model's fair value 9.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. GXO Logistics, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $47.05 to $50.01 (+6.3%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $55.18 is 9.4% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 9 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give GXO?
The calibrated range for GXO over 63 trading days is $48.80 to $64.18. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that GXO's own options imply (41% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $33.85 to $68.20. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
GXO Logistics, Inc. and its associated entities deliver a full range of logistics solutions globally. The company sits in Industrials, under Integrated Freight & Logistics.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $50.01 a share on the run of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $47.05, so the fair value moved +6.3%. The model's own reason is: "The peer group changed: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $51.04 to $65.17. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 43 out of 100, measured against comparable companies. Stability is the strongest factor, at 100, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.5 points against a peer median of 1.3 points. Balance sheet is the weakest, at 26, with net debt to EBITDA of 6.89x against a peer median of 2.86x. The model compares GXO with Landstar System, C.H. Robinson, J.B. Hunt, Expeditors International and FedEx.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does GXO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
GXO Logistics's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. GXO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.9% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 GXO moved 9.5% in one session, against the 2.8% a day that options had priced: 3.4 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across GXO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in GXO
How does GXO score on business quality?
GXO Logistics's overall quality score is 43 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 14 | 3.2%ROIC | 7.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 33 | 1.37xFCF / net income | 1.51x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 68 | 12.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 3.3%Net buybacks / market value | 2.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 26 | 6.89xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.86x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does GXO compare with similar companies?
The companies in integrated freight & logistics closest to GXO Logistics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $145.64 | $133.42 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $128.31 | $114.00 | -11.2% | Fairly valued |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $15.65 | $18.24 | +16.5% | Low evidence grade |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | $25.08 | $38.16 | +52.2% | Low evidence grade |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $218.99 | $242.14 | +10.6% | Fairly valued |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $188.87 | $197.09 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| FWRD Forward Air Corporation | $16.93 | $10.16 | -40.0% | Low evidence grade |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | $316.80 | $347.58 | +9.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for GXO, the peer-implied price, is $49.99 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All integrated freight & logistics stocks ranked by gap to fair value
GXO Logistics at a glance
GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its associated entities, delivers a full range of logistics solutions globally.
- Market value
- $5.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. GXO was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices GXO Logistics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for GXO was $47.05. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $50.01, a change of +6.3%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about GXO Logistics's valuation
Is GXO Logistics stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GXO reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $50.01 a share against a last close of $55.18, a gap of -9.4%.
What is GXO's fair value?
$50.01 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $33.85 to $68.20.
What price range does the model give GXO?
$48.80 to $64.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does GXO Logistics report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GXO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.6% around the report of 12 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GXO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on GXO
The model holds no idea open on GXO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on GXO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.