NYSE: EXPD · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) at $183.65 a share. The stock last closed at $192.47, which puts the model's fair value 4.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. functions as a prominent global logistics and supply chain management enterprise.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $183.65 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $186.78, a move of -1.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $154.08 to $223.93, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 78 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability scored 100 with ROIC 53.7%, while earnings quality scored 28 with FCF / net income 1.00x. Growth quality scored 83 with revenue growth trailing 4.4%, capital discipline 76 with net buybacks / market value 3.7%, balance sheet 96 with net debt / EBITDA -0.37x, and stability 85 with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 0.4 pts. The model compares it with J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., FedEx Corporation, United Parcel Service, Inc., Landstar System, Inc., and GXO Logistics, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from +12.6% to -5.2%, with a median size of 4.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EXPD?
The calibrated range for EXPD over 63 trading days is $154.08 to $223.93. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $143.41 to $235.50. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EXPD score on business quality?
Expeditors International of Washington's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 53.7%ROIC | 12.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 28 | 1.00xFCF / net income | 1.52x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 83 | 4.4%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 76 | 3.7%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 96 | -0.37xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 85 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.6 pts |
How does EXPD compare with similar companies?
The companies in integrated freight & logistics closest to Expeditors International of Washington in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $234.20 | $278.61 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $157.72 | $142.94 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | $112.89 | $94.45 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | $290.36 | $309.09 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $93.02 | $119.00 | +27.9% | Undervalued |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $173.48 | $148.22 | -14.6% | Fairly valued |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $46.56 | $43.84 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $16.76 | $17.65 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
All integrated freight & logistics stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does EXPD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Expeditors International of Washington's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How EXPD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +6.3% |
| 5 May 2026 | +8.3% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -5.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +12.6% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +1.6% |
| 6 May 2025 | -3.4% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | +2.3% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | -0.8% |
Expeditors International of Washington at a glance
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. functions as a prominent global logistics and supply chain management enterprise.
- Market value
- $24.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $13.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.54
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Expeditors International of Washington on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EXPD was $186.78. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $183.65, a change of -1.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Expeditors International of Washington's valuation
Is Expeditors International of Washington stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EXPD reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $183.65 a share against a last close of $192.47, a gap of -4.6%.
What is EXPD's fair value?
$183.65 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $143.41 to $235.50.
What price range does the model give EXPD?
$154.08 to $223.93 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Expeditors International of Washington report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EXPD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.6% around the report of 4 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EXPD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.