United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $139.00 · Current price: $104.51 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on UPS

United Parcel Service (UPS), a key player in the Industrials sector, is currently rated as Fairly Valued by our Monte Carlo simulations. With a current market price of $104.51, our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $139.00. This suggests a potential +33.0% from its present valuation. Investors reviewing UPS should note that while upside potential exists, the current price is closely aligned with the central tendency of its intrinsic value distribution, making it a "fairly valued" proposition rather than a deeply undervalued or overvalued one.

How UPS stacks up against Industrials

When evaluating UPS within the broader Industrials sector, its operational and financial health is categorized as "average." This "average" quality tier suggests that while UPS is a robust company, it doesn't significantly outperform its sector peers on fundamental metrics that drive our valuation models. The median fair value of $139.00 reflects this balanced perspective, indicating that its intrinsic worth, based on thousands of simulated future scenarios, is reasonably captured by the current market price of $104.51 given its sector standing. The indicated +33.0% should be viewed in this context.

What this means for investors

For investors, the Fairly Valued verdict on UPS implies a balanced risk/reward profile at its current price of $104.51. While there is a calculated +33.0% to the median fair value of $139.00, this is consistent with a stock that is trading near its intrinsic worth. Given its "average" quality tier, significant outperformance driven solely by fundamental re-rating may be less probable without material operational improvements. To explore the full distribution, including bear (P10) and bull (P90) case scenarios, and track UPS’s fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.