NYSE: UPS · Integrated Freight & Logistics
United Parcel Service (UPS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values United Parcel Service (UPS) at $119.00 a share. The stock last closed at $93.02, which puts the model's fair value 27.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. United Parcel Service, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
United Parcel Service, Inc. is a package delivery and logistics provider. It offers transportation and delivery services, operating through U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $119.00 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.7% since the previous run, which on 19 Sep 2026 gave $122.26. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $84.74 to $109.49, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade was High.
The overall quality score for the business was 42 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares United Parcel Service, Inc. with FedEx Corporation, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., Landstar System, Inc., and GXO Logistics, Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give UPS?
The calibrated range for UPS over 63 trading days is $84.74 to $109.49. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that UPS's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $88.11 to $157.23. In 74% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does UPS score on business quality?
United Parcel Service's overall quality score is 42 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 50 | 13.1%ROIC | 13.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 1.20xFCF / net income | 1.17x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 33 | -2.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 8 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 2.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.14x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.6 pts |
How does UPS compare with similar companies?
The companies in integrated freight & logistics closest to United Parcel Service in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX FedEx Corporation | $290.36 | $309.09 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $192.47 | $183.65 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $234.20 | $278.61 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $157.72 | $142.94 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | $112.89 | $94.45 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $173.48 | $148.22 | -14.6% | Fairly valued |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $46.56 | $43.84 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $16.76 | $17.65 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
All integrated freight & logistics stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does UPS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
United Parcel Service's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. UPS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.4% over one month.
How UPS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -7.4% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -1.5% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -3.1% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | +9.2% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -14.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | -1.8% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -14.6% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +4.6% |
United Parcel Service at a glance
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S.
- Market value
- $79.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $94.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 18
- Beta to the US market
- 0.67
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices United Parcel Service on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for UPS was $122.26. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $119.00, a change of -2.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about United Parcel Service's valuation
Is United Parcel Service stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, UPS reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $119.00 a share against a last close of $93.02, a gap of +27.9%.
What is UPS's fair value?
$119.00 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $88.11 to $157.23.
What price range does the model give UPS?
$84.74 to $109.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does United Parcel Service report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UPS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.6% around the report of 30 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UPS is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.