NASDAQ: COLM · Apparel Manufacturers
Columbia Sportswear (COLM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Columbia Sportswear (COLM) at $59.82 a share. The stock last closed at $70.06, which puts the model's fair value 14.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Columbia Sportswear Company.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $61.30 to $59.82 (-2.4%). Net debt rose on the latest balance sheet: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $70.06 is 14.6% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 13 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give COLM?
The calibrated range for COLM over 63 trading days is $62.21 to $81.07. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that COLM's own options imply (40% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $44.48 to $79.21. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Columbia Sportswear Company, including its various business units, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, procurement, promotion, and sale of clothing, footwear, gear, and accessories.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of the company at $59.82 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $61.30, so the fair value moved -2.4%. In the model's own words, net debt rose on the latest balance sheet: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $62.21 to $81.07. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High, based on the completeness of the inputs, the number of comparable companies and the width of the range of outcomes. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for the business is 48 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Balance sheet scores 64, with net debt to EBITDA of 0.65x against a peer median of 2.88x. Stability scores 69, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 2.5 pts against a peer median of 2.6 pts. The model compares the business with Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB), PVH Corp. (PVH), Under Armour, Inc. (UAA), Under Armour, Inc. (UA), G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII) and Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does COLM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Columbia Sportswear's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 4 Nov 2026, COLM's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 11.5% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across COLM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.1%.
How does COLM score on business quality?
Columbia Sportswear's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 54 | 11.6%ROIC | 7.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 29 | 1.15xFCF / net income | 1.27x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 39 | 0.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 6.6%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 64 | 0.65xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.88x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 69 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does COLM compare with similar companies?
The companies in apparel manufacturers closest to Columbia Sportswear in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTB Kontoor Brands, Inc. | $76.92 | $80.52 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| PVH PVH Corp. | $91.10 | $115.15 | +26.4% | Undervalued |
| UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $5.32 | $3.44 | -35.3% | Overvalued |
| UA Under Armour, Inc. | $5.14 | $3.41 | -33.7% | Overvalued |
| VFC V.F. Corporation | $20.04 | $16.85 | -15.9% | Low evidence grade |
| GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. | $31.34 | $38.16 | +21.8% | Undervalued |
| RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | $394.40 | $376.87 | -4.4% | Fairly valued |
| OXM Oxford Industries, Inc. | $28.21 | $26.20 | -7.1% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for COLM, the peer-implied price, is $49.58 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Columbia Sportswear at a glance
Columbia Sportswear Company, including its various business units, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, procurement, promotion, and sale of clothing, footwear, gear, and accessories.
- Market value
- $3.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. COLM was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Columbia Sportswear on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for COLM was $61.30. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $59.82, a change of -2.4%. Net debt rose on the latest balance sheet: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Columbia Sportswear's valuation
Is Columbia Sportswear stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, COLM reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $59.82 a share against a last close of $70.06, a gap of -14.6%.
What is COLM's fair value?
$59.82 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $44.48 to $79.21.
What price range does the model give COLM?
$62.21 to $81.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Columbia Sportswear report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has COLM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.7% around the report of 3 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for COLM is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on COLM
The model has an idea open on COLM under Earnings Momentum since 13 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on COLM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.