NYSE: UA · Apparel Manufacturers
Under Armour (UA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Under Armour (UA) at $3.41 a share. The stock last closed at $5.36, which puts the model's fair value 36.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Under Armour, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $3.17 to $3.41 (+7.6%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $5.36 is 36.4% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give UA?
The calibrated range for UA over 63 trading days is $2.76 to $4.07. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 35% of the time over 63 trading days, and 64% ended above it; the typical move was −4.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $2.21 to $4.77. In 19% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Under Armour, Inc. (UA) is a consumer cyclical company in apparel manufacturing. It focuses on the creation, marketing, and distribution of advanced performance clothing, footwear, and accessories for male, female, and younger demographics.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $3.41 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $3.17, so the fair value moved +7.6%. In the model's words, the multiple it anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The 63-day calibrated range is $2.76 to $4.07, built from the fair value because the stock has no live options data. Calibrated weekly against 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026, such ranges held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. Evidence grade: Medium. It covers input completeness, comparable-company count and agreement, and outcome spread. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The overall quality score is 35 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 9, with ROIC at 0.6% against a peer median of 6.6%. Growth quality scores 14, with trailing revenue growth at -3.9% against a peer median of 0.8%. The comparison set is UAA, GIII, COLM, KTB, PVH and RL.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does UA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across UA's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.3%.
How does UA score on business quality?
Under Armour's overall quality score is 35 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 9 | 0.6%ROIC | 6.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 14 | -3.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 68 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -41.50xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.22x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 14 | 3.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does UA compare with similar companies?
The companies in apparel manufacturers closest to Under Armour in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $5.57 | $3.44 | -38.2% | Overvalued |
| GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. | $32.02 | $38.16 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| COLM Columbia Sportswear Company | $69.12 | $59.82 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
| KTB Kontoor Brands, Inc. | $79.18 | $90.26 | +14.0% | Fairly valued |
| PVH PVH Corp. | $92.28 | $115.15 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| VFC V.F. Corporation | $20.32 | $16.85 | -17.1% | Low evidence grade |
| OXM Oxford Industries, Inc. | $30.38 | $26.20 | -13.8% | Low evidence grade |
| RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | $381.78 | $367.21 | -3.8% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for UA, the peer-implied price, is $0.79 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Under Armour at a glance
Under Armour, Inc., together with its affiliates, focuses on the creation, marketing, and distribution of advanced performance clothing, footwear, and accessories for male, female, and younger demographics.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -4.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 1.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. UA was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Under Armour on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for UA was $3.17. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $3.41, a change of +7.6%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Under Armour's valuation
Is Under Armour stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, UA reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $3.41 a share against a last close of $5.36, a gap of -36.4%.
What is UA's fair value?
$3.41 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $2.21 to $4.77.
What price range does the model give UA?
$2.76 to $4.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has UA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +24.6% around the report of 6 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on UA
The model holds no idea open on UA today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on UA with their outcomes. A free account is enough.