NYSE: UA ยท Apparel Manufacturers
Under Armour (UA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Under Armour (UA) at $3.36 a share. The stock last closed at $4.68, which puts the model's fair value 28.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Under Armour, Inc.
What price range does the model give UA?
The calibrated range for UA over 63 trading days is $2.83 to $4.12. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was +0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $2.17 to $4.73. In 19% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does UA score on business quality?
Under Armour's overall quality score is 36 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 8 | 0.6%ROIC | 6.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 14 | -3.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -13.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.88x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 3.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does UA compare with similar companies?
The companies in apparel manufacturers closest to Under Armour in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $4.77 | $3.33 | -30.2% | Overvalued |
| COLM Columbia Sportswear Company | $56.73 | $59.75 | +5.3% | Fairly valued |
| PVH PVH Corp. | $73.40 | $96.47 | +31.4% | Low model confidence |
| GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. | $27.66 | $32.97 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| KTB Kontoor Brands, Inc. | $66.41 | $69.42 | +4.5% | Fairly valued |
| VFC V.F. Corporation | $13.05 | $12.81 | -1.8% | Low model confidence |
| OXM Oxford Industries, Inc. | $28.04 | $25.30 | -9.8% | Low model confidence |
| RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | $339.82 | $329.67 | -3.0% | Fairly valued |
When does UA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Under Armour's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How UA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | -9.4% |
| 12 May 2026 | -15.1% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | +24.6% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +0.7% |
| 8 Aug 2025 | -20.7% |
| 13 May 2025 | +18.2% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -9.2% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +8.7% |
Under Armour at a glance
Under Armour, Inc., together with its affiliates, focuses on the creation, marketing, and distribution of advanced performance clothing, footwear, and accessories for male, female, and younger demographics.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -4.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 1.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Under Armour on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for UA was $3.51. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $3.36, a change of -4.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Under Armour's valuation
Is Under Armour stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, UA reads as Overvalued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $3.36 a share against a last close of $4.68, a gap of -28.2%.
What is UA's fair value?
$3.36 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $2.17 to $4.73.
What price range does the model give UA?
$2.83 to $4.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Under Armour report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +24.6% around the report of 6 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for UA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.