NYSE: GRBK · Residential Construction
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Green Brick Partners (GRBK) at $70.46 a share. The stock last closed at $66.66, which puts the model's fair value 5.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Green Brick Partners, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is an American enterprise primarily engaged in the construction of residential properties and the development of land.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $70.46 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $72.41, so the fair value moved -2.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $58.79 to $85.42, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence as High.
The overall quality score is 45 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with KB Home (KBH), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO), Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY), and Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP). The median move around the last 8 earnings reports was 4.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give GRBK?
The calibrated range for GRBK over 63 trading days is $58.79 to $85.42. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.92 to $92.49. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does GRBK score on business quality?
Green Brick Partners's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 63 | 13.4%ROIC | 9.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 27 | 0.37xFCF / net income | 0.76x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 26 | -2.8%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 53 | 1.4%Net buybacks / market value | 4.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 0.45xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.98x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 38 | 2.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does GRBK compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential construction closest to Green Brick Partners in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBH KB Home | $45.75 | $39.68 | -13.3% | Fairly valued |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $134.76 | $167.41 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | $63.85 | $59.91 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | $585.13 | $543.86 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | $59.87 | $45.92 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | $88.10 | $86.34 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $193.00 | $181.50 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. | $48.14 | $25.22 | -47.6% | Low evidence grade |
All residential construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does GRBK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Green Brick Partners's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How GRBK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -4.8% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -4.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -0.7% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -1.1% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -5.9% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +7.7% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +2.3% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -8.6% |
Green Brick Partners at a glance
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is an American enterprise primarily engaged in the construction of residential properties and the development of land.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -6.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.60
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Green Brick Partners on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for GRBK was $72.41. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $70.46, a change of -2.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Green Brick Partners's valuation
Is Green Brick Partners stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GRBK reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $70.46 a share against a last close of $66.66, a gap of +5.7%.
What is GRBK's fair value?
$70.46 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.92 to $92.49.
What price range does the model give GRBK?
$58.79 to $85.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Green Brick Partners report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GRBK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.6% around the report of 30 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GRBK is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.