NYSE: DT · Application Software
Dynatrace (DT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Dynatrace (DT) at $61.58 a share. The stock last closed at $47.03, which puts the model's fair value 30.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Dynatrace, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $64.45 to $61.58 (-4.5%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $47.03 is 30.9% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 8 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give DT?
The calibrated range for DT over 63 trading days is $40.57 to $56.40. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that DT's own options imply (50% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $45.56 to $82.40. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
Dynatrace, Inc. (DT) is a Technology company in Application Software. It specializes in a software intelligence platform for complex, evolving multi-cloud setups.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $61.58 a share on 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $64.45, so the fair value moved -4.5%. In the model's own words: "The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $40.57 to $56.40. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade covers how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model gives the business a quality score of 71 out of 100, a composite of six factors measured against comparable companies. Stability is highest at 91, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.9 pts against a peer median of 3.4 pts. Earnings quality scores 89, with FCF to net income of 3.75x against a peer median of 1.53x. Growth quality scores 79, with trailing revenue growth of 18.8% against a peer median of 12.4%. Profitability scores lowest at 45, with ROIC of 11.4% against a peer median of 15.6%. The model compares the company with Tyler Technologies, Fair Isaac, DocuSign, Manhattan Associates, Guidewire Software, PTC, Paycom Software and Bentley Systems.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does DT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Dynatrace's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 13.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. DT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.4% over one month.
On 3 Nov 2026 DT moved 14.7% in one session, against the 3.4% a day that options had priced: 4.4 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across DT's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in DT
How does DT score on business quality?
Dynatrace's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 45 | 11.4%ROIC | 15.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 89 | 3.75xFCF / net income | 1.53x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 79 | 18.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 4.2%Net buybacks / market value | 2.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 80 | -2.94xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.64x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 91 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.4 pts |
How does DT compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Dynatrace in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $404.24 | $391.55 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | $724.38 | $854.23 | +17.9% | Undervalued |
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | $80.36 | $110.44 | +37.4% | Undervalued |
| MANH Manhattan Associates, Inc. | $255.14 | $218.38 | -14.4% | Fairly valued |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | $161.04 | $138.90 | -13.7% | Fairly valued |
| PTC PTC Inc. | $194.06 | $202.14 | +4.2% | Fairly valued |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $262.99 | $278.72 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| BSY Bentley Systems, Incorporated | $42.13 | $37.39 | -11.3% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for DT, the peer-implied price, is $67.55 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Dynatrace at a glance
Dynatrace, Inc. specializes in providing a sophisticated software intelligence platform tailored for complex, evolving multi-cloud setups.
- Market value
- $16.7B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.69
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. DT was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Dynatrace on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for DT was $64.45. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $61.58, a change of -4.5%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Dynatrace's valuation
Is Dynatrace stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DT reads as Undervalued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $61.58 a share against a last close of $47.03, a gap of +30.9%.
What is DT's fair value?
$61.58 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $45.56 to $82.40.
What price range does the model give DT?
$40.57 to $56.40 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Dynatrace report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.1% around the report of 3 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DT is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on DT
The model holds no idea open on DT today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on DT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.