NASDAQ: MANH · Application Software
Manhattan Associates (MANH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Manhattan Associates (MANH) at $218.38 a share. The stock last closed at $255.17, which puts the model's fair value 14.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Manhattan Associates, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $205.47 to $218.38 (+6.3%). The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $255.17 is 14.4% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 26 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. On the model's Quality Momentum list since 19 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MANH?
The calibrated range for MANH over 63 trading days is $223.77 to $299.84. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MANH's own options imply (44% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $164.91 to $287.43. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH) is a technology company in application software. It develops comprehensive software solutions to manage and optimize supply chains, inventory, and omni-channel operations.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $218.38 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $205.47, so the fair value moved +6.3%. In the model's own words, the move came because the model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $230.42 to $302.65, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence High, though this does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 70 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability stands highest at 100, with ROIC of 389.4% against a peer median of 8.5%. Growth quality is lowest at 45, with trailing revenue growth of 3.7% against a peer median of 13.9%. The model compares it with DocuSign, Fair Isaac, Tyler Technologies, Guidewire Software, Dynatrace, Paycom Software, Bentley Systems and PTC.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MANH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Manhattan Associates's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MANH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.8% over one month.
How MANH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | +1.4% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | +28.1% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | +6.8% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -9.1% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -2.7% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +9.0% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -22.7% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | -8.2% |
How does MANH score on business quality?
Manhattan Associates's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 389.4%ROIC | 8.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 67 | 1.78xFCF / net income | 1.75x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 45 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 54 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | -0.50xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.38x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.9 pts |
How does MANH compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Manhattan Associates in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | $78.92 | $110.44 | +39.9% | Undervalued |
| FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | $707.40 | $849.11 | +20.0% | Undervalued |
| TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $430.37 | $391.55 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | $167.35 | $138.90 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $43.70 | $61.58 | +40.9% | Undervalued |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $250.02 | $278.72 | +11.5% | Fairly valued |
| BSY Bentley Systems, Incorporated | $44.94 | $37.39 | -16.8% | Overvalued |
| PTC PTC Inc. | $194.60 | $202.14 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MANH, the peer-implied price, is $176.38 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Manhattan Associates at a glance
Manhattan Associates, Inc. develops comprehensive software solutions to manage and optimize supply chains, inventory, and omni-channel operations.
- Market value
- $14.5B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.15
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MANH was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Manhattan Associates on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MANH was $205.47. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $218.38, a change of +6.3%. The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Manhattan Associates's valuation
Is Manhattan Associates stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MANH reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $218.38 a share against a last close of $255.17, a gap of -14.4%.
What is MANH's fair value?
$218.38 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $164.91 to $287.43.
What price range does the model give MANH?
$223.77 to $299.84 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Manhattan Associates report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MANH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +28.1% around the report of 28 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MANH is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MANH
The model has an idea open on MANH under Quality Momentum since 19 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MANH with their outcomes. A free account is enough.