NYSE: EQT · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
EQT (EQT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values EQT (EQT) at $47.30 a share. The stock last closed at $50.17, which puts the model's fair value 5.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. EQT Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
EQT Corporation primarily functions as an extractor of natural gas within the United States. The firm also obtains various natural gas liquids (NGLs), specifically ethane, propane, isobutane, butane, and natural gasoline.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $47.30 a share for EQT Corporation on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.5% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which was $48.02. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $46.12 to $57.68, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for EQT Corporation is 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 46, earnings quality 66, growth quality 68, capital discipline 31, balance sheet 71, and stability 0. The model compares EQT Corporation with Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL), Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG), Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), Permian Resources Corporation (PR), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Ovintiv Inc. (OVV), and APA Corporation (APA). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 3.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EQT?
The calibrated range for EQT over 63 trading days is $46.12 to $57.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that EQT's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $30.42 to $70.26. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EQT score on business quality?
EQT's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 46 | 9.1%ROIC | 9.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 66 | 1.32xFCF / net income | 0.87x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 68 | 73.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 31 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 71 | 0.89xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.38x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 19.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.6 pts |
How does EQT compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to EQT in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $340.19 | $272.73 | -19.8% | Overvalued |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $85.52 | $110.65 | +29.4% | Undervalued |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $184.71 | $207.76 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $47.65 | $41.29 | -13.3% | Fairly valued |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | $22.12 | $30.93 | +39.8% | Undervalued |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $58.08 | $64.59 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $60.34 | $90.75 | +50.4% | Undervalued |
| APA APA Corporation | $43.68 | $51.20 | +17.2% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does EQT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
EQT's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. EQT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.2% over one month.
How EQT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | +10.1% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | +3.0% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | -0.1% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -5.2% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | -3.0% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +2.2% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | +1.5% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | +3.4% |
EQT at a glance
EQT Corporation primarily functions as an extractor of natural gas within the United States. In addition to natural gas, the firm also obtains various natural gas liquids (NGLs), specifically ethane, propane, isobutane, butane, and natural gasoline.
- Market value
- $31.4B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices EQT on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EQT was $48.02. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $47.30, a change of -1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about EQT's valuation
Is EQT stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EQT reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $47.30 a share against a last close of $50.17, a gap of -5.7%.
What is EQT's fair value?
$47.30 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $30.42 to $70.26.
What price range does the model give EQT?
$46.12 to $57.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does EQT report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EQT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.1% around the report of 21 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EQT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.