NASDAQ: FANG · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Diamondback Energy (FANG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Diamondback Energy (FANG) at $207.76 a share. The stock last closed at $184.71, which puts the model's fair value 12.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Diamondback Energy, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Diamondback Energy, Inc. operates as an independent enterprise focused on oil and natural gas.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $207.76 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +0.3% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $207.06. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $173.34 to $251.87, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The overall quality score against comparable companies was 54 out of 100. Key factors included Profitability 13, Earnings quality 95, Growth quality 83, Capital discipline 69, Balance sheet 55, and Stability 25. The model compares it with Devon Energy Corporation, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, EOG Resources, Inc., EQT Corporation, Texas Pacific Land Corporation, Expand Energy Corporation, Permian Resources Corporation, and ConocoPhillips. The median move around the last 8 earnings reports was 1.9%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FANG?
The calibrated range for FANG over 63 trading days is $173.34 to $251.87. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $162.13 to $261.19. In 65% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FANG score on business quality?
Diamondback Energy's overall quality score is 54 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 13 | 6.9%ROIC | 9.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 4.10xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 83 | 36.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 3.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 55 | 1.71xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.97x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 8.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.2 pts |
How does FANG compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Diamondback Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $47.65 | $41.27 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $58.08 | $64.59 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $141.38 | $177.17 | +25.3% | Undervalued |
| EQT EQT Corporation | $50.17 | $47.30 | -5.7% | Fairly valued |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $340.19 | $272.73 | -19.8% | Overvalued |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $85.52 | $110.65 | +29.4% | Undervalued |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | $22.12 | $30.93 | +39.8% | Undervalued |
| COP ConocoPhillips | $126.75 | $155.94 | +23.0% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does FANG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Diamondback Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How FANG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -5.5% |
| 4 May 2026 | -0.7% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | -2.0% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -2.6% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | -0.3% |
| 5 May 2025 | -3.5% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -1.8% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -0.1% |
Diamondback Energy at a glance
Diamondback Energy, Inc. operates as an independent enterprise focused on oil and natural gas.
- Market value
- $52.0B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $17.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Diamondback Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FANG was $207.06. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $207.76, a change of +0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Diamondback Energy's valuation
Is Diamondback Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FANG reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $207.76 a share against a last close of $184.71, a gap of +12.5%.
What is FANG's fair value?
$207.76 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $162.13 to $261.19.
What price range does the model give FANG?
$173.34 to $251.87 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Diamondback Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FANG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.5% around the report of 3 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FANG is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.