NYSE: OXY · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Occidental Petroleum (OXY) at $64.13 a share. The stock last closed at $58.08, which puts the model's fair value 10.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Occidental Petroleum Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $64.13 a share on 2 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $62.91, so the fair value moved +1.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $53.19 to $67.74, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 34 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 38, Earnings quality 13, Growth quality 60, Capital discipline 13, Balance sheet 58, and Stability 13. Faircurve's model compares it with Diamondback Energy, Inc., Devon Energy Corporation, EOG Resources, Inc., EQT Corporation, Texas Pacific Land Corporation, ConocoPhillips, Expand Energy Corporation, and Permian Resources Corporation. The stock moved +1.7% around its 5 Aug 2026 earnings report, -8.7% around 5 May 2026, and +12.2% around 18 Feb 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give OXY?
The calibrated range for OXY over 63 trading days is $53.19 to $67.74. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OXY's own options imply (34% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $48.14 to $83.99. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does OXY score on business quality?
Occidental Petroleum's overall quality score is 34 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 8.0%ROIC | 8.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 13 | 0.73xFCF / net income | 1.00x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 60 | -20.3%Revenue growth, trailing | -4.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 13 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 2.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 58 | 0.75xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.82x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 3.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does OXY compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Occidental Petroleum in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $184.71 | $206.87 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $47.65 | $40.94 | -14.1% | Fairly valued |
| EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $141.38 | $175.45 | +24.1% | Undervalued |
| EQT EQT Corporation | $50.17 | $48.02 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $340.19 | $273.44 | -19.6% | Overvalued |
| COP ConocoPhillips | $126.75 | $156.65 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $85.52 | $111.04 | +29.8% | Undervalued |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | $22.12 | $30.80 | +39.2% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does OXY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Occidental Petroleum's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OXY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.8% over one month.
On 1 Oct 2026 OXY moved 4.6% in one session, against the 2.1% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
How OXY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +1.7% |
| 5 May 2026 | -8.7% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +12.2% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | +1.3% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +1.2% |
| 7 May 2025 | +5.5% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | +6.1% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | +0.6% |
Occidental Petroleum at a glance
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing.
- Market value
- $56.6B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $24.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +22.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Occidental Petroleum on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for OXY was $62.91. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $64.13, a change of +1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Occidental Petroleum's valuation
Is Occidental Petroleum stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OXY reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $64.13 a share against a last close of $58.08, a gap of +10.4%.
What is OXY's fair value?
$64.13 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $48.14 to $83.99.
What price range does the model give OXY?
$53.19 to $67.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Occidental Petroleum report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OXY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.2% around the report of 18 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OXY is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.