NYSE: PR · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Permian Resources (PR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Permian Resources (PR) at $30.87 a share. The stock last closed at $21.34, which puts the model's fair value 44.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Permian Resources Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $30.21 to $30.87 (+2.2%). Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $21.34 is 44.7% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 24 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 3 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PR?
The calibrated range for PR over 63 trading days is $18.64 to $25.19. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PR's own options imply (45% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $20.52 to $44.96. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Permian Resources Corporation is an independent producer in the oil and natural gas sector. It focuses on crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves within the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $30.87 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $30.21, so the fair value moved +2.2%. In the model's own words, "Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $19.48 to $26.68. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. This looks at input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The company's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Three factors stand out. Profitability scores 80, with ROIC at 11.3% against a peer median of 8.9%. Earnings quality scores 77, with FCF / net income at 1.31x against a peer median of 1.14x. Capital discipline scores 25, with net buybacks / market value at 0.1% against a peer median of 0.9%. The model compares the company with Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Ovintiv Inc. (OVV), EQT Corporation (EQT), Range Resources Corporation (RRC) and SM Energy Company (SM), each of which has a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does PR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Permian Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.1% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 PR moved 6.5% in one session, against the 2.9% a day that options had priced: 2.3 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in PR
How does PR score on business quality?
Permian Resources's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 11.3%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 77 | 1.31xFCF / net income | 1.14x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 62 | 1.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 68 | 0.81xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.22x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 8.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.0 pts |
How does PR compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Permian Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $85.34 | $115.56 | +35.4% | Undervalued |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $272.18 | $307.54 | +13.0% | Low evidence grade |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $60.91 | $90.81 | +49.1% | Undervalued |
| APA APA Corporation | $43.48 | $73.57 | +69.2% | Gap wider than 60% |
| EQT EQT Corporation | $50.63 | $49.85 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | $36.38 | $36.31 | -0.2% | Low evidence grade |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | $50.19 | $49.37 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| SM SM Energy Company | $29.63 | $36.29 | +22.5% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PR, the peer-implied price, is $37.57 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Permian Resources at a glance
Permian Resources Corporation operates as an independent producer in the oil and natural gas sector, primarily concentrating its efforts on the extraction of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves within the United States.
- Market value
- $21.8B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +36.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- -0.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PR was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Permian Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PR was $30.21. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $30.87, a change of +2.2%. Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Permian Resources's valuation
Is Permian Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PR reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $30.87 a share against a last close of $21.34, a gap of +44.7%.
What is PR's fair value?
$30.87 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $20.52 to $44.96.
What price range does the model give PR?
$18.64 to $25.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Permian Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.1% around the report of 4 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PR
The model has an idea open on PR under Scorecard Leaders since 3 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.