NYSE: PR ยท Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Permian Resources (PR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Permian Resources (PR) at $33.13 a share. The stock last closed at $22.76, which puts the model's fair value 45.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Permian Resources Corporation.
What price range does the model give PR?
The calibrated range for PR over 63 trading days is $20.73 to $27.15. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PR's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.10 to $48.15. In 78% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PR score on business quality?
Permian Resources's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 11.3%ROIC | 9.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 76 | 1.31xFCF / net income | 1.11x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 58 | 1.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 79 | 0.81xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.78x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 31 | 8.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.0 pts |
How does PR compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Permian Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $87.49 | $126.77 | +44.9% | Undervalued |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $62.37 | $81.93 | +31.4% | Undervalued |
| APA APA Corporation | $44.87 | $52.86 | +17.8% | Undervalued |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $352.67 | $282.72 | -19.8% | Overvalued |
| EQT EQT Corporation | $50.00 | $48.30 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | $34.86 | $32.59 | -6.5% | Low model confidence |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | $38.44 | $41.97 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| SM SM Energy Company | $36.97 | $33.02 | -10.7% | Fairly valued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Permian Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
On 18 Sep 2026, PR's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 11.1% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
On 16 Sep 2026 PR moved 6.3% in one session, against the 2.4% a day that options had priced: 2.6 times the implied size.
How PR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -1.1% |
| 6 May 2026 | -10.4% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +1.9% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +3.1% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -3.4% |
| 7 May 2025 | +23.7% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -0.3% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +7.8% |
Permian Resources at a glance
Permian Resources Corporation operates as an independent producer in the oil and natural gas sector, primarily concentrating its efforts on the extraction of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves within the United States.
- Market value
- $19.1B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +30.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Permian Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PR was $34.59. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $33.13, a change of -4.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Permian Resources's valuation
Is Permian Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PR reads as Undervalued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $33.13 a share against a last close of $22.76, a gap of +45.6%.
What is PR's fair value?
$33.13 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.10 to $48.15.
What price range does the model give PR?
$20.73 to $27.15 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Permian Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.7% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for PR is medium. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.