NYSE: OVV · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Ovintiv (OVV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Ovintiv (OVV) at $90.81 a share. The stock last closed at $66.43, which puts the model's fair value 36.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Ovintiv Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $87.87 to $90.81 (+3.3%). Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $66.43 is 36.7% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 22 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 2 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OVV?
The calibrated range for OVV over 63 trading days is $58.83 to $77.12. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OVV's own options imply (41% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $69.97 to $115.32. In 76% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Ovintiv Inc. is an energy company focused on the exploration, production and sale of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $90.81 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $87.87, so the fair value moved +3.3%. In the model's words, analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $58.49 to $77.68. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High, based on input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of outcomes. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 73 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Earnings quality stands out at 100, with FCF to net income of 4.76x against a peer median of 1.01x. Growth quality is 45, with trailing revenue growth of -4.5% against a peer median of 15.6%, and the balance sheet is 31, with net debt to EBITDA of 1.50x against a peer median of 0.97x. The model compares the company with Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Permian Resources Corporation (PR), APA Corporation (APA), Range Resources Corporation (RRC), EQT Corporation (EQT) and SM Energy Company (SM).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does OVV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ovintiv's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OVV's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.8% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 OVV moved 5.6% in one session, against the 2.7% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OVV's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in OVV
How does OVV score on business quality?
Ovintiv's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 15.7%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 4.76xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 45 | -4.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 93 | 2.9%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 31 | 1.50xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.97x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 3.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does OVV compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Ovintiv in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $89.93 | $115.56 | +28.5% | Undervalued |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | $24.00 | $30.87 | +28.6% | Undervalued |
| APA APA Corporation | $47.77 | $73.57 | +54.0% | Undervalued |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $332.00 | $345.86 | +4.2% | Low evidence grade |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | $39.93 | $36.31 | -9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | $54.01 | $49.37 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| EQT EQT Corporation | $54.25 | $49.85 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| SM SM Energy Company | $36.67 | $36.29 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for OVV, the peer-implied price, is $114.83 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Ovintiv at a glance
Ovintiv Inc. is an energy company primarily focused on the exploration, production, and sale of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
- Market value
- $20.1B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- -0.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. OVV was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ovintiv on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OVV was $87.87. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $90.81, a change of +3.3%. Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ovintiv's valuation
Is Ovintiv stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OVV reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $90.81 a share against a last close of $66.43, a gap of +36.7%.
What is OVV's fair value?
$90.81 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $69.97 to $115.32.
What price range does the model give OVV?
$58.83 to $77.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Ovintiv report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OVV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.5% around the report of 3 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OVV is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OVV
The model has an idea open on OVV under Scorecard Leaders since 2 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OVV with their outcomes. A free account is enough.