NASDAQ: EXEL · Biotechnology
Exelixis (EXEL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Exelixis (EXEL) at $68.28 a share. The stock last closed at $72.31, which puts the model's fair value 5.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Exelixis, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $64.66 to $68.28 (+5.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $72.31 is 5.6% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give EXEL?
The calibrated range for EXEL over 63 trading days is $65.01 to $82.42. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that EXEL's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $42.89 to $106.45. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Exelixis, Inc. is a biotechnology firm that works to combat cancer. It focuses on finding, developing and marketing new cancer treatments within the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Exelixis at $68.28 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $64.66, so the fair value moved +5.6%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $65.01 to $82.42. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade covers how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Exelixis scores 73 out of 100 on the model's quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Capital discipline scores 94, with net buybacks at 7.2% of market value against a peer median of 1.2%. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC at 49.3% against a peer median of 20.3%. Stability scores 15, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 6.2 pts against a peer median of 5.1 pts. Growth quality scores 50, with trailing revenue growth at 7.0% against a peer median of 21.3%. The model compares Exelixis with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX), Incyte Corporation (INCY), Insmed Incorporated (INSM), United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) and Roivant Sciences Ltd. (ROIV), each of which has its own fair value on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does EXEL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. EXEL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.3% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across EXEL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in EXEL
How does EXEL score on business quality?
Exelixis's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 49.3%ROIC | 20.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 1.30xFCF / net income | 1.38x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 50 | 7.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 94 | 7.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 64 | -0.13xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.17x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 15 | 6.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.1 pts |
How does EXEL compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Exelixis in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $128.62 | $134.12 | +4.3% | Low evidence grade |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | $164.85 | $162.09 | -1.7% | Fairly valued |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $229.74 | $256.45 | +11.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $159.89 | $165.50 | +3.5% | Low evidence grade |
| INCY Incyte Corporation | $117.59 | $141.04 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
| INSM Insmed Incorporated | $104.44 | $106.20 | +1.7% | Fairly valued |
| UTHR United Therapeutics Corporation | $601.32 | $634.32 | +5.5% | Fairly valued |
| ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. | $36.04 | $34.62 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for EXEL, the peer-implied price, is $60.04 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Exelixis at a glance
Exelixis, Inc. operates as a biotechnology firm dedicated to combating cancer, primarily focusing on the identification, advancement, and marketing of novel oncological treatments within the United States.
- Market value
- $17.4B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. EXEL was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Exelixis on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for EXEL was $64.66. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $68.28, a change of +5.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Exelixis's valuation
Is Exelixis stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EXEL reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $68.28 a share against a last close of $72.31, a gap of -5.6%.
What is EXEL's fair value?
$68.28 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $42.89 to $106.45.
What price range does the model give EXEL?
$65.01 to $82.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has EXEL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -19.0% around the report of 28 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EXEL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on EXEL
The model holds no idea open on EXEL today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on EXEL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.