NASDAQ: ALNY · Biotechnology
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) at $267.97 a share. The stock last closed at $223.82, which puts the model's fair value 19.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $235.64 to $267.97 (+13.7%). The peer group changed: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $223.82 is 19.7% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 29 Oct 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 15% either way. On the model's Quality at a Discount list since 2 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give ALNY?
The calibrated range for ALNY over 63 trading days is $189.56 to $283.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ALNY's own options imply (58% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $169.23 to $407.69. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative therapeutic solutions using ribonucleic acid interference (RNAi) technology.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $267.97 a share for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. on 10 Oct 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved +13.7% since the previous run on 3 Oct 2026, which gave $235.64, and the peer group changed: part of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $189.56 to $283.92, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026); ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The model's overall quality score for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is 69 out of 100, which is a composite score against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100 with ROIC at 109.5% against a peer median of 12.6%, and Growth quality scores 93 with Revenue growth, trailing 65.2% against a peer median of 27.5%. Earnings quality scores 40 with FCF / net income at 0.67x, and Stability scores 0 with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 31.4 pts against a peer median of 8.0 pts. The model compares Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. with Roivant Sciences Ltd. (ROIV), Incyte Corporation (INCY), Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL), Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX), and Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO).
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ALNY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 14.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 37 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ALNY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.7% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ALNY's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ALNY
How does ALNY score on business quality?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 109.5%ROIC | 12.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 40 | 0.67xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 93 | 65.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 27.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 68 | -0.38xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 31.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.0 pts |
How does ALNY compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Alnylam Pharmaceuticals in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. | $33.35 | $33.25 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| UTHR United Therapeutics Corporation | $543.40 | $550.98 | +1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| INCY Incyte Corporation | $108.62 | $127.10 | +17.0% | Undervalued |
| INSM Insmed Incorporated | $96.79 | $101.57 | +4.9% | Low evidence grade |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $59.51 | $62.34 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | $135.13 | $158.84 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $210.39 | $259.50 | +23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $109.62 | $108.46 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ALNY, the peer-implied price, is $402.77 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals at a glance
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company primarily dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative therapeutic solutions leveraging ribonucleic acid interference (RNAi) technology.
- Market value
- $31.1B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +47.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 0.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ALNY was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Alnylam Pharmaceuticals on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ALNY was $235.64. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $267.97, a change of +13.7%. The peer group changed: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Alnylam Pharmaceuticals's valuation
Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ALNY reads as Undervalued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $267.97 a share against a last close of $223.82, a gap of +19.7%.
What is ALNY's fair value?
$267.97 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $169.23 to $407.69.
What price range does the model give ALNY?
$189.56 to $283.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ALNY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -28.3% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ALNY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ALNY
The model has an idea open on ALNY under Quality at a Discount since 2 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ALNY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.