NASDAQ: ROIV · Biotechnology
Roivant Sciences (ROIV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Roivant Sciences (ROIV) at $34.62 a share. The stock last closed at $36.62, which puts the model's fair value 5.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Roivant Sciences Ltd.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $34.23 to $34.62 (+1.1%). Analysts raised their next-twelve-month revenue estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $36.62 is 5.5% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 9 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 14% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ROIV?
The calibrated range for ROIV over 63 trading days is $30.86 to $45.19. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ROIV's own options imply (58% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.30 to $52.07. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Roivant Sciences Ltd. (ROIV) is a biopharmaceutical and healthcare technology company. It is dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative therapeutic drugs.
Faircurve's model gave Roivant Sciences a fair value of $34.62 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $34.23, so the fair value moved +1.1%. In the model's own words, the reason is: Analysts raised their next-twelve-month revenue estimates: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $30.86 to $45.19. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It looks at input completeness, comparable companies and the spread of outcomes, and does not say whether the fair value is right.
Roivant's overall quality score is 18 out of 100, the model's composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 0, with ROIC at -36.1% against a peer median of 2.6%. Stability also scores 0, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 3006.5 pts against a peer median of 18.4 pts. The model compares it with United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR), Insmed Incorporated (INSM), Incyte Corporation (INCY), Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL), Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY), Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO) and Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ROIV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Roivant Sciences's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 13.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ROIV's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.6% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ROIV's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ROIV
How does ROIV score on business quality?
Roivant Sciences's overall quality score is 18 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -36.1%ROIC | 2.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 12 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 51 | -71.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 35 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 13 | 3.98xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 3006.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 18.4 pts |
How does ROIV compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Roivant Sciences in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTHR United Therapeutics Corporation | $565.72 | $634.32 | +12.1% | Fairly valued |
| INSM Insmed Incorporated | $108.76 | $106.20 | -2.4% | Fairly valued |
| INCY Incyte Corporation | $118.01 | $141.04 | +19.5% | Undervalued |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $156.66 | $165.50 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $68.71 | $68.28 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $122.96 | $134.12 | +9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | $159.76 | $162.09 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $227.32 | $256.45 | +12.8% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ROIV, the peer-implied price, is $2.79 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Roivant Sciences at a glance
Roivant Sciences Ltd. is a biopharmaceutical and healthcare technology company dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative therapeutic drugs.
- Market value
- $26.7B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $273M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +593.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.91
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,061 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ROIV was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Roivant Sciences on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ROIV was $34.23. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $34.62, a change of +1.1%. Analysts raised their next-twelve-month revenue estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Roivant Sciences's valuation
Is Roivant Sciences stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ROIV reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $34.62 a share against a last close of $36.62, a gap of -5.5%.
What is ROIV's fair value?
$34.62 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.30 to $52.07.
What price range does the model give ROIV?
$30.86 to $45.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Roivant Sciences report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ROIV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +30.9% around the report of 6 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ROIV is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ROIV
The model holds no idea open on ROIV today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ROIV with their outcomes. A free account is enough.