NYSE: FBK · Regional Banks
FB Financial (FBK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values FB Financial (FBK) at $46.37 a share. The stock last closed at $53.42, which puts the model's fair value 13.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. FB Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
FB Financial Corporation functions as the parent entity for FirstBank, offering an extensive array of commercial and consumer banking solutions tailored for businesses, professionals, and individual clients. The company operates in the Financial Services, Regional Banks sector.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $46.37 a share on 29 Sep 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.0% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $46.83. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $38.90 to $56.54, built from the fair value, and has held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The model grades the business against comparable companies including Trustmark Corporation (TRMK), NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB), First Bancorp (FBNC), Bank of Hawaii Corporation (BOH), Customers Bancorp, Inc. (CUBI), Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS), and First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include +2.6% on 13 Jul 2026 and +6.0% on 15 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FBK?
The calibrated range for FBK over 63 trading days is $38.90 to $56.54. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $35.99 to $58.63. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FBK compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to FB Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRMK Trustmark Corporation | $45.93 | $42.71 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| NBTB NBT Bancorp Inc. | $51.53 | $43.24 | -16.1% | Overvalued |
| BANC Banc of California, Inc. | $17.74 | $22.76 | +28.3% | Low evidence grade |
| FBNC First Bancorp | $62.33 | $41.85 | -32.9% | Overvalued |
| BOH Bank of Hawaii Corporation | $69.28 | $72.00 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | $75.47 | $108.67 | +44.0% | Undervalued |
| PFS Provident Financial Services, Inc. | $22.58 | $23.93 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | $25.26 | $23.23 | -8.0% | Overvalued |
When does FBK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
FB Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 13 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 1 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 49 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How FBK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2026 | +2.6% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | -0.4% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | +3.8% |
| 14 Oct 2025 | +1.0% |
| 14 Jul 2025 | -2.6% |
| 14 Apr 2025 | +3.1% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | +0.9% |
| 15 Oct 2024 | +6.0% |
FB Financial at a glance
FB Financial Corporation functions as the parent entity for FirstBank, offering an extensive array of commercial and consumer banking solutions tailored for businesses, professionals, and individual clients.
- Market value
- $2.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -18.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.63
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices FB Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FBK was $46.83. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $46.37, a change of -1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about FB Financial's valuation
Is FB Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FBK reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $46.37 a share against a last close of $53.42, a gap of -13.2%.
What is FBK's fair value?
$46.37 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $35.99 to $58.63.
What price range does the model give FBK?
$38.90 to $56.54 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does FB Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 13 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FBK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.0% around the report of 15 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FBK is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.