NASDAQ: NBTB · Regional Banks
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values NBT Bancorp (NBTB) at $43.09 a share. The stock last closed at $51.53, which puts the model's fair value 16.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. NBT Bancorp Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
NBT Bancorp Inc. is a financial holding company providing personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $43.09 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $43.24, meaning the fair value moved -0.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $35.95 to $52.24, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The model compares NBT Bancorp Inc. against Trustmark Corporation, Bank of Hawaii Corporation, FB Financial Corporation, First Bancorp, Customers Bancorp, Inc., Provident Financial Services, Inc., and Beacon Financial Corp. The stock's moves around its last eight earnings reports ranged from +4.0% to -4.0%, with a median size of 2.8% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NBTB?
The calibrated range for NBTB over 63 trading days is $35.95 to $52.24. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $33.44 to $54.49. In 27% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NBTB compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to NBT Bancorp in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRMK Trustmark Corporation | $45.93 | $42.10 | -8.3% | Fairly valued |
| BANC Banc of California, Inc. | $17.74 | $22.52 | +26.9% | Low evidence grade |
| BOH Bank of Hawaii Corporation | $69.28 | $72.11 | +4.1% | Fairly valued |
| FBK FB Financial Corporation | $53.42 | $46.96 | -12.1% | Fairly valued |
| FBNC First Bancorp | $62.33 | $40.89 | -34.4% | Overvalued |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | $75.47 | $107.22 | +42.1% | Undervalued |
| PFS Provident Financial Services, Inc. | $22.58 | $23.97 | +6.2% | Fairly valued |
| BBT Beacon Financial Corp. | $28.34 | $27.14 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
When does NBTB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
NBT Bancorp's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NBTB moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | +2.4% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -3.3% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | -0.5% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | +0.9% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | +4.0% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +0.7% |
| 27 Jan 2025 | -4.0% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | +3.9% |
NBT Bancorp at a glance
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments.
- Market value
- $2.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -12.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.42
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices NBT Bancorp on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NBTB was $43.24. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $43.09, a change of -0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about NBT Bancorp's valuation
Is NBT Bancorp stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NBTB reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $43.09 a share against a last close of $51.53, a gap of -16.4%.
What is NBTB's fair value?
$43.09 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $33.44 to $54.49.
What price range does the model give NBTB?
$35.95 to $52.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does NBT Bancorp report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NBTB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -4.0% around the report of 27 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NBTB is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.