NASDAQ: INDB · Regional Banks
Independent Bank (INDB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Independent Bank (INDB) at $63.18 a share. The stock last closed at $80.06, which puts the model's fair value 21.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Independent Bank Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Independent Bank Corp. functions as the parent company for Rockland Trust Company, delivering a wide array of commercial banking products and services.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $63.18 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $65.88, so the fair value moved -4.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days, built from the fair value, is $53.01 to $77.04. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The business quality scores against comparable companies WSFS Financial Corporation, United Community Banks, Inc., Cathay General Bancorp, First BanCorp., Renasant Corporation, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc., BancFirst Corporation, and First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 3.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give INDB?
The calibrated range for INDB over 63 trading days is $53.01 to $77.04. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $49.04 to $79.89. In 18% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does INDB compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Independent Bank in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSFS WSFS Financial Corporation | $78.03 | $66.20 | -15.2% | Overvalued |
| UCB United Community Banks, Inc. | $34.11 | $32.55 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| CATY Cathay General Bancorp | $60.84 | $63.45 | +4.3% | Fairly valued |
| FBP First BanCorp. | $27.04 | $28.30 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| RNST Renasant Corporation | $39.92 | $34.73 | -13.0% | Fairly valued |
| TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. | $93.76 | $87.21 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| BANF BancFirst Corporation | $108.08 | $92.97 | -14.0% | Fairly valued |
| FIBK First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | $36.00 | $27.90 | -22.5% | Overvalued |
When does INDB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Independent Bank's next earnings report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 30 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 9.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 50 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How INDB moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | -0.8% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | -1.9% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | -1.3% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | -2.5% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +8.3% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | +6.8% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | +3.5% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -4.2% |
Independent Bank at a glance
Independent Bank Corp. functions as the parent company for Rockland Trust Company, delivering a wide array of commercial banking products and services.
- Market value
- $3.9B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -11.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.61
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Independent Bank on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for INDB was $65.88. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $63.18, a change of -4.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Independent Bank's valuation
Is Independent Bank stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, INDB reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $63.18 a share against a last close of $80.06, a gap of -21.1%.
What is INDB's fair value?
$63.18 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $49.04 to $79.89.
What price range does the model give INDB?
$53.01 to $77.04 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Independent Bank report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has INDB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.3% around the report of 17 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for INDB is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.