NYSE: BOX ยท Infrastructure Software
Box (BOX) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Box (BOX) at $28.59 a share. The stock last closed at $34.49, which puts the model's fair value 17.1% below the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Box, Inc.
What price range does the model give BOX?
The calibrated range for BOX over 63 trading days is $23.99 to $34.86. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.97 to $37.14. In 39% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BOX score on business quality?
Box's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -94.2%ROIC | 5.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | 3.25xFCF / net income | 1.53x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 37 | 8.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 8.9%Net buybacks / market value | 3.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 93 | -1.65xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 86 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.6 pts |
How does BOX compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Box in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACIW ACI Worldwide, Inc. | $50.15 | $51.15 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
| FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $36.17 | $44.74 | +23.7% | Low evidence grade |
| QLYS Qualys, Inc. | $193.00 | $203.97 | +5.7% | Low evidence grade |
| WEX WEX Inc. | $169.10 | $132.27 | -21.8% | Low evidence grade |
| NTCT NetScout Systems, Inc. | $40.96 | $40.10 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| PATH UiPath Inc. | $13.12 | $16.38 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| TDC Teradata Corporation | $30.14 | $32.58 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| EEFT Euronet Worldwide, Inc. | $63.50 | $88.49 | +39.4% | Undervalued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does BOX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Box's next earnings report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How BOX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2026 | -0.2% |
| 26 May 2026 | -4.7% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | +11.7% |
| 2 Dec 2025 | +9.6% |
| 26 Aug 2025 | +3.3% |
| 27 May 2025 | +13.5% |
| 4 Mar 2025 | -1.1% |
| 3 Dec 2024 | -9.5% |
Box at a glance
Box, Inc. delivers a robust cloud-based platform designed for comprehensive content management.
- Market value
- $4.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.29
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Box on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BOX was $30.22. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $28.59, a change of -5.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Box's valuation
Is Box stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BOX's fair value at $28.59 a share against a last close of $34.49, as of 26 Sep 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is BOX's fair value?
$28.59 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.97 to $37.14.
What price range does the model give BOX?
$23.99 to $34.86 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Box report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BOX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.5% around the report of 27 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BOX is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.