NYSE: PATH · Infrastructure Software
UiPath (PATH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values UiPath (PATH) at $16.38 a share. The stock last closed at $13.12, which puts the model's fair value 24.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. UiPath Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
UiPath Inc. delivers a comprehensive automation ecosystem, specializing in Robotic Process Automation (RPA) solutions, with a significant presence in the United States, Romania, and Japan.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $16.38 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $18.04, and the fair value moved -9.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $11.40 to $16.77, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for UiPath Inc. is 62 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Dropbox, Inc., ACI Worldwide, Inc., GoDaddy Inc., and Gen Digital Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 7.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PATH?
The calibrated range for PATH over 63 trading days is $11.40 to $16.77. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PATH's own options imply (54% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.00 to $22.16. In 77% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PATH score on business quality?
UiPath's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 11.0%ROIC | -8.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 52 | 1.00xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 39 | 12.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 24.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 65 | 4.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -2.27xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 18.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.9 pts |
How does PATH compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to UiPath in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEX WEX Inc. | $169.10 | $132.27 | -21.8% | Low evidence grade |
| QLYS Qualys, Inc. | $193.00 | $203.97 | +5.7% | Low evidence grade |
| DBX Dropbox, Inc. | $33.90 | $38.53 | +13.7% | Fairly valued |
| ACIW ACI Worldwide, Inc. | $50.15 | $51.15 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
| BOX Box, Inc. | $34.49 | $28.59 | -17.1% | Data under review |
| FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $36.17 | $44.74 | +23.7% | Low evidence grade |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $97.21 | $126.29 | +29.9% | Undervalued |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $21.99 | $31.78 | +44.5% | Undervalued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PATH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
UiPath's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PATH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.7% over one month.
How PATH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | -15.6% |
| 28 May 2026 | +5.0% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | -1.9% |
| 3 Dec 2025 | +29.2% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | +5.6% |
| 29 May 2025 | +9.9% |
| 12 Mar 2025 | -15.1% |
| 5 Dec 2024 | -3.4% |
UiPath at a glance
UiPath Inc. delivers a comprehensive automation ecosystem, specializing in Robotic Process Automation (RPA) solutions, with a significant presence in the United States, Romania, and Japan.
- Market value
- $6.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.45
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices UiPath on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PATH was $18.04. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $16.38, a change of -9.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about UiPath's valuation
Is UiPath stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PATH reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $16.38 a share against a last close of $13.12, a gap of +24.8%.
What is PATH's fair value?
$16.38 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.00 to $22.16.
What price range does the model give PATH?
$11.40 to $16.77 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does UiPath report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PATH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +29.2% around the report of 3 Dec 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PATH is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.