NYSE: DIS · Entertainment
Walt Disney (DIS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Walt Disney (DIS) at $137.53 a share. The stock last closed at $102.19, which puts the model's fair value 34.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Walt Disney Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) operates worldwide through its various subsidiaries as a prominent global entertainment enterprise. It is in the Communication Services sector and Entertainment industry.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $137.53 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +3.3% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $133.20. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $95.53 to $114.98; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 54 out of 100, against comparable companies such as Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) and Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV). The model also compares it with Fox Corporation (FOXA), Fox Corporation (FOX), and Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG). For its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved between -9.3% and +14.1%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 7.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DIS?
The calibrated range for DIS over 63 trading days is $95.53 to $114.98. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that DIS's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $98.80 to $186.83. In 74% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DIS score on business quality?
Walt Disney's overall quality score is 54 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 59 | 7.3%ROIC | 1.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 51 | 0.96xFCF / net income | 2.77x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 40 | 3.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 4.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 46 | 1.76xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.53x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 81 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does DIS compare with similar companies?
The companies in entertainment closest to Walt Disney in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX Netflix, Inc. | $67.06 | $92.32 | +37.7% | Undervalued |
| WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $30.94 | $27.62 | -10.7% | Low evidence grade |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $168.77 | $197.01 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| FOXA Fox Corporation | $62.28 | $64.66 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| FOX Fox Corporation | $55.89 | $59.40 | +6.3% | Fairly valued |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | $26.82 | $32.17 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $175.58 | $212.73 | +21.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $9.50 | $8.80 | -7.4% | Low evidence grade |
When does DIS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Walt Disney's next earnings report is scheduled for 12 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. DIS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.5% over one month.
On 1 Oct 2026 DIS moved 3.4% in one session, against the 1.6% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
How DIS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +6.6% |
| 6 May 2026 | +8.1% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | -7.6% |
| 13 Nov 2025 | -9.3% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -4.6% |
| 7 May 2025 | +14.1% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -1.1% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | +12.0% |
Walt Disney at a glance
Operating worldwide through its various subsidiaries, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) stands as a prominent global entertainment enterprise.
- Market value
- $184.3B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $106.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 18
- Beta to the US market
- 0.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Walt Disney on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DIS was $133.20. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $137.53, a change of +3.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Walt Disney's valuation
Is Walt Disney stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DIS reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $137.53 a share against a last close of $102.19, a gap of +34.6%.
What is DIS's fair value?
$137.53 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $98.80 to $186.83.
What price range does the model give DIS?
$95.53 to $114.98 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Walt Disney report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 12 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DIS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.1% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DIS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.