NASDAQ: FWRD · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Forward Air (FWRD) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Forward Air (FWRD) at $12.00 a share. The stock last closed at $15.91, which puts the model's fair value 24.6% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Forward Air Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Forward Air Corporation, including its various subsidiaries, functions as a streamlined transportation and logistics enterprise throughout the United States and Canada, operating with an asset-light model. The company operates in Industrials, Integrated Freight & Logistics.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $12.00 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $12.55, so the fair value moved -4.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.07 to $14.63, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score for the business is 41 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. The model compares it with GXO Logistics, Inc., Landstar System, Inc., FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 15.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FWRD?
The calibrated range for FWRD over 63 trading days is $10.07 to $14.63. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $39.93. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FWRD score on business quality?
Forward Air's overall quality score is 41 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -9.0%ROIC | 1.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 36 | 0.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 3.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -18.30xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.77x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 17.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.6 pts |
How does FWRD compare with similar companies?
The companies in integrated freight & logistics closest to Forward Air in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | $29.77 | $31.90 | +7.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $16.76 | $17.65 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $46.56 | $43.84 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $173.48 | $148.22 | -14.6% | Fairly valued |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | $112.89 | $94.45 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $157.72 | $142.94 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $234.20 | $278.61 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $192.47 | $183.65 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
All integrated freight & logistics stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does FWRD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Forward Air's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 32.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How FWRD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 15.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +16.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | -46.2% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | -5.0% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +15.2% |
| 11 Aug 2025 | -3.7% |
| 7 May 2025 | +59.8% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -16.2% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +6.6% |
Forward Air at a glance
Forward Air Corporation, including its various subsidiaries, functions as a streamlined transportation and logistics enterprise throughout the United States and Canada, operating with an asset-light model.
- Market value
- $465M
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 1.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Forward Air on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FWRD was $12.55. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $12.00, a change of -4.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Forward Air's valuation
Is Forward Air stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts FWRD's fair value at $12.00 a share against a last close of $15.91, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is FWRD's fair value?
$12.00 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $39.93.
What price range does the model give FWRD?
$10.07 to $14.63 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Forward Air report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FWRD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 15.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +59.8% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FWRD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.