NYSE: HD · Home Improvement
Home Depot (HD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Home Depot (HD) at $264.63 a share. The stock last closed at $282.85, which puts the model's fair value 6.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Home Depot, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $264.63 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $269.33, so the fair value moved -1.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $262.95 to $321.32, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 45 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW), Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), and Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, had a median size, ignoring direction, of 2.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HD?
The calibrated range for HD over 63 trading days is $262.95 to $321.32. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HD's own options imply (28% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $199.45 to $339.62. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HD score on business quality?
Home Depot's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 20.7%ROIC | 25.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 55 | 1.06xFCF / net income | 1.03x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 47 | 3.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 49 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 34 | 2.53xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.96x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 85 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does HD compare with similar companies?
The companies in home improvement closest to Home Depot in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $180.80 | $205.25 | +13.5% | Fairly valued |
| FND Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | $45.49 | $43.64 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
| MCD McDonald's Corporation | $231.89 | $236.08 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | $132.68 | $126.91 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $159.02 | $189.22 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
| PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | $75.38 | $87.30 | +15.8% | Low evidence grade |
| SBUX Starbucks Corporation | $94.71 | $95.28 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $162.43 | $151.05 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
When does HD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Home Depot's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.2% over one month.
How HD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | +1.9% |
| 19 May 2026 | +3.6% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -0.4% |
| 18 Nov 2025 | -6.6% |
| 19 Aug 2025 | +1.8% |
| 20 May 2025 | -2.3% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | +2.1% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | +0.5% |
Home Depot at a glance
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement.
- Market value
- $292.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Home Improvement
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $175.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 21
- Beta to the US market
- 0.48
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Home Depot on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HD was $269.33. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $264.63, a change of -1.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Home Depot's valuation
Is Home Depot stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HD reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $264.63 a share against a last close of $282.85, a gap of -6.4%.
What is HD's fair value?
$264.63 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $199.45 to $339.62.
What price range does the model give HD?
$262.95 to $321.32 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Home Depot report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.6% around the report of 18 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.