NYSE: MCD · Restaurants
McDonald's (MCD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values McDonald's (MCD) at $231.11 a share. The stock last closed at $231.89, which puts the model's fair value 0.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. McDonald's Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $231.11 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $236.08, so the fair value moved -2.1%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $218.91 to $255.11, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score against comparable companies was 51 out of 100. The model compared it with Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM), Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI), Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH), Brinker International, Inc. (EAT), and Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 2.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MCD?
The calibrated range for MCD over 63 trading days is $218.91 to $255.11. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MCD's own options imply (22% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $160.04 to $318.65. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MCD score on business quality?
McDonald's's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 18.9%ROIC | 33.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 39 | 0.88xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 45 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 1.4%Net buybacks / market value | 2.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 3.58xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.19x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 46 | 2.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.7 pts |
How does MCD compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to McDonald's in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX Starbucks Corporation | $94.71 | $95.26 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $32.36 | $32.23 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $136.12 | $132.44 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $200.33 | $213.44 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $156.14 | $167.38 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $297.62 | $316.49 | +6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $202.00 | $250.23 | +23.9% | Undervalued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.04 | -6.8% | Fairly valued |
When does MCD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
McDonald's's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MCD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 6.3% over one month.
How MCD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +3.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | -2.9% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +1.9% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -0.3% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +3.1% |
| 1 May 2025 | -2.4% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | +5.4% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -1.8% |
McDonald's at a glance
McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets.
- Market value
- $164.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $28.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 20
- Beta to the US market
- -0.10
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices McDonald's on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MCD was $236.08. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $231.11, a change of -2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about McDonald's's valuation
Is McDonald's stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MCD reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $231.11 a share against a last close of $231.89, a gap of -0.3%.
What is MCD's fair value?
$231.11 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $160.04 to $318.65.
What price range does the model give MCD?
$218.91 to $255.11 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does McDonald's report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MCD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.4% around the report of 10 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MCD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.