NASDAQ: BKNG · Travel Services
Booking Holdings (BKNG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Booking Holdings (BKNG) at $184.24 a share. The stock last closed at $159.02, which puts the model's fair value 15.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Booking Holdings Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Booking Holdings Inc. is a leading global provider of online travel and dining reservation services. The company manages a portfolio of well-known digital platforms.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $184.24 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $189.22, so the fair value moved -2.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $142.65 to $190.36; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 38 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Airbnb, Inc., Carnival Corporation & plc, Expedia Group, Inc., Travel + Leisure Co., and Tripadvisor, Inc. The moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 3.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BKNG?
The calibrated range for BKNG over 63 trading days is $142.65 to $190.36. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BKNG's own options imply (41% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $120.79 to $273.48. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BKNG score on business quality?
Booking Holdings's overall quality score is 38 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | -103.5%ROIC | 17.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 27 | 1.32xFCF / net income | 2.18x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 59 | 13.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 79 | 8.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 58 | 1.92xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.93x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 4.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.2 pts |
How does BKNG compare with similar companies?
The companies in travel services closest to Booking Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $162.43 | $155.37 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $277.74 | $291.13 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $25.76 | $36.05 | +39.9% | Undervalued |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $265.00 | $330.38 | +24.7% | Undervalued |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $15.14 | $27.05 | +78.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| TNL Travel + Leisure Co. | $62.92 | $86.34 | +37.2% | Undervalued |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $8.51 | $9.78 | +14.9% | Fairly valued |
When does BKNG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Booking Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BKNG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.8% over one month.
How BKNG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +7.4% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -2.0% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -3.2% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -3.4% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -1.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +4.3% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -2.3% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +5.6% |
Booking Holdings at a glance
Booking Holdings Inc. is a leading global provider of online travel and dining reservation services. The company manages a portfolio of well-known digital platforms.
- Market value
- $123.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $31.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 26
- Beta to the US market
- 0.76
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Booking Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BKNG was $189.22. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $184.24, a change of -2.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Booking Holdings's valuation
Is Booking Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BKNG reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $184.24 a share against a last close of $159.02, a gap of +15.9%.
What is BKNG's fair value?
$184.24 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $120.79 to $273.48.
What price range does the model give BKNG?
$142.65 to $190.36 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Booking Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BKNG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.4% around the report of 4 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BKNG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.