NASDAQ: PDD · Specialty Retail
PDD Holdings (PDD) fair value and price range
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values PDD Holdings (PDD) at $91.64 a share. The stock last closed at $81.96, which puts the model's fair value 11.8% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. PDD Holdings Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $84.77 to $91.64 (+8.1%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $81.96 is 11.8% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 18 Nov 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give PDD?
The calibrated range for PDD over 63 trading days is $73.81 to $95.22. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PDD's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $60.83 to $139.74. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
PDD Holdings, Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses.
Faircurve's model on 10 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $91.64 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 3 Oct 2026 gave $84.77, so the fair value moved +8.1% because the multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $73.81 to $95.22, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model's overall quality score is 76 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100 with ROIC 23.8% against a peer median of 13.8%, and Balance sheet scores 93 with Net debt / EBITDA -0.93x against a peer median of 0.46x. Stability scores 32 with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 6.1 pts, against a peer median of 1.6 pts. The model compares PDD Holdings Inc. with MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI), O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY), eBay Inc. (EBAY), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY), and Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY).
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does PDD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PDD Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PDD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.5% over one month.
On 9 Oct 2026 PDD moved 3.9% in one session, against the 1.9% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PDD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in PDD
How does PDD score on business quality?
PDD Holdings's overall quality score is 76 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 23.8%ROIC | 13.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 81 | 1.22xFCF / net income | 2.86x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 51 | 9.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 36.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 93 | -0.93xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.46x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 32 | 6.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does PDD compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to PDD Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $1,876.04 | $1,982.52 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $86.03 | $82.06 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | $116.41 | $121.54 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $2,893.30 | $3,027.00 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $239.98 | $236.22 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $579.00 | $584.67 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $641.74 | $629.68 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $87.96 | $110.13 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PDD, the peer-implied price, is $262.76 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
PDD Holdings at a glance
PDD Holdings, Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses.
- Market value
- $115.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $73.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 17
- Beta to the US market
- 1.06
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PDD Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PDD was $84.77. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $91.64, a change of +8.1%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PDD Holdings's valuation
Is PDD Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PDD's fair value at $91.64 a share against a last close of $81.96, as of 10 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PDD's fair value?
$91.64 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $60.83 to $139.74.
What price range does the model give PDD?
$73.81 to $95.22 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does PDD Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PDD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -31.4% around the report of 26 Aug 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PDD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PDD
The model holds no idea open on PDD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PDD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.