NASDAQ: HTLD · Trucking
Heartland Express (HTLD) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Heartland Express (HTLD) at $11.90 a share. The stock last closed at $11.90, which puts the model's fair value in line with the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Heartland Express, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Heartland Express, Inc., operating with its subsidiaries, functions as a transportation company primarily focusing on short to medium-distance truckload freight across the United States and Canada.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $11.90 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $12.48, so the fair value moved -4.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days, built from the fair value, was $9.98 to $14.51. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business scored 32 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compares it with ArcBest Corp (ARCB), RXO, Inc. (RXO), Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR), Saia, Inc. (SAIA), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX), and XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HTLD?
The calibrated range for HTLD over 63 trading days is $9.98 to $14.51. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $7.58 to $18.11. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HTLD score on business quality?
Heartland Express's overall quality score is 32 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 11 | -5.1%ROIC | 1.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 67 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 10 | -23.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 31 | 0.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 81 | 0.82xNet debt / EBITDA | 9.80x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 22 | 6.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does HTLD compare with similar companies?
The companies in trucking closest to Heartland Express in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | $13.34 | $13.62 | +2.1% | Low evidence grade |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $35.35 | $40.15 | +13.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | $132.61 | $119.94 | -9.6% | Fairly valued |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | $23.38 | $14.93 | -36.1% | Overvalued |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | $32.89 | $39.86 | +21.2% | Undervalued |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | $351.12 | $313.13 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | $66.76 | $70.52 | +5.6% | Fairly valued |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $186.09 | $166.37 | -10.6% | Fairly valued |
When does HTLD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Heartland Express's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How HTLD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -5.9% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +12.5% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +9.4% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | +2.0% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -3.6% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -1.1% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -2.9% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -3.0% |
Heartland Express at a glance
Heartland Express, Inc., operating with its subsidiaries, functions as a transportation company primarily focusing on short to medium-distance truckload freight across the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $876M
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $754M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -11.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.99
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Heartland Express on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HTLD was $12.48. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $11.90, a change of -4.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Heartland Express's valuation
Is Heartland Express stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts HTLD's fair value at $11.90 a share against a last close of $11.90, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is HTLD's fair value?
$11.90 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $7.58 to $18.11.
What price range does the model give HTLD?
$9.98 to $14.51 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Heartland Express report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HTLD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.5% around the report of 23 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HTLD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.