NYSE: RXO · Trucking
RXO (RXO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values RXO (RXO) at $14.93 a share. The stock last closed at $23.38, which puts the model's fair value 36.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. RXO, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
RXO, Inc., headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, functions as a freight broker specializing in full truckload transportation services across the United States.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $14.93 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -2.6% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $15.33. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $12.53 to $18.20, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The business has an overall quality score of 33 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with ArcBest Corp (ARCB), Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR), Saia, Inc. (SAIA), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX), and XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from +10.9% to -29.1%, with a median size of 6.1%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give RXO?
The calibrated range for RXO over 63 trading days is $12.53 to $18.20. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $9.15 to $22.81. In 29% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does RXO score on business quality?
RXO's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 9 | -1.3%ROIC | 3.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 9 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 94 | 26.2%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 2.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 22.99xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.36x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does RXO compare with similar companies?
The companies in trucking closest to RXO in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | $132.61 | $119.94 | -9.6% | Fairly valued |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $35.35 | $40.15 | +13.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | $32.89 | $39.86 | +21.2% | Undervalued |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | $351.12 | $313.13 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | $13.34 | $13.62 | +2.1% | Low evidence grade |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | $66.76 | $70.52 | +5.6% | Fairly valued |
| HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. | $11.90 | $11.90 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $186.09 | $166.37 | -10.6% | Fairly valued |
When does RXO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
RXO's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 18.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How RXO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +3.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | +10.9% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | -3.2% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -29.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -5.6% |
| 7 May 2025 | +3.5% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -15.0% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -6.6% |
RXO at a glance
RXO, Inc., headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, functions as a freight broker specializing in full truckload transportation services across the United States.
- Market value
- $3.3B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.96
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices RXO on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for RXO was $15.33. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $14.93, a change of -2.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about RXO's valuation
Is RXO stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, RXO reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $14.93 a share against a last close of $23.38, a gap of -36.1%.
What is RXO's fair value?
$14.93 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $9.15 to $22.81.
What price range does the model give RXO?
$12.53 to $18.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does RXO report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RXO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -29.1% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RXO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.