NYSE: KNX · Trucking
Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) at $69.49 a share. The stock last closed at $62.81, which puts the model's fair value 10.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $69.49, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $62.81 is 10.6% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 20 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give KNX?
The calibrated range for KNX over 63 trading days is $56.08 to $72.19. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that KNX's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.64 to $89.47. In 65% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) is a prominent provider of transportation services. It specialises in truckload freight solutions for clients across the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value of Knight-Swift at $69.49 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $69.91, so the model's fair value moved -0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $56.08 to $72.19. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for Knight-Swift is 47 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Earnings quality stands out at 91, with FCF / net income at 7.17x against a peer median of 1.21x. Profitability is lower at 15, with ROIC at 2.5% against a peer median of 7.0%. The model compares the company with Saia, Inc., Schneider National, Inc., RXO, Inc., XPO Logistics, Inc., ArcBest Corp, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., Werner Enterprises, Inc. and Marten Transport, Ltd.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does KNX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Knight-Swift Transportation's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. KNX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.0% over one month.
How KNX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | -1.2% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | -5.7% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +1.4% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | +7.9% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | -7.3% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +0.8% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | +4.2% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -1.6% |
How does KNX score on business quality?
Knight-Swift Transportation's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 15 | 2.5%ROIC | 7.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | 7.17xFCF / net income | 1.21x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 63 | 0.8%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 35 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 2.07xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.36x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 23 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does KNX compare with similar companies?
The companies in trucking closest to Knight-Swift Transportation in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | $353.18 | $351.55 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | $29.55 | $36.01 | +21.9% | Undervalued |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | $28.24 | $21.20 | -24.9% | Overvalued |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $191.15 | $168.78 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | $134.48 | $127.79 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $177.68 | $160.73 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $28.61 | $32.43 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | $12.05 | $13.00 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for KNX, the peer-implied price, is $95.00 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Knight-Swift Transportation at a glance
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) stands as a prominent provider of transportation services, specializing in truckload freight solutions for clients throughout the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
- Market value
- $9.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.88
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. KNX was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Knight-Swift Transportation on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for KNX was $69.91. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $69.49, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Knight-Swift Transportation's valuation
Is Knight-Swift Transportation stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, KNX reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $69.49 a share against a last close of $62.81, a gap of +10.6%.
What is KNX's fair value?
$69.49 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.64 to $89.47.
What price range does the model give KNX?
$56.08 to $72.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Knight-Swift Transportation report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KNX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.9% around the report of 21 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KNX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on KNX
The model holds no idea open on KNX today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on KNX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.