NYSE: TDS · Telecommunications Services
Telephone and Data Systems (TDS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Telephone and Data Systems (TDS) at $36.58 a share. The stock last closed at $35.39, which puts the model's fair value 3.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Telephone and Data Systems, Inc., a telecommunications company, provides communications services to residential, commercial, and wholesale customers in the United States. It operates through two segments: TDS Telecom and Array.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $36.58 a share on 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $37.51, a movement of -2.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $30.69 to $44.60, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 39 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) and Comcast Corporation (CMCSA). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -8.8% to +0.6%, with a median size of 5.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TDS?
The calibrated range for TDS over 63 trading days is $30.69 to $44.60. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $27.90 to $48.82. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TDS score on business quality?
Telephone and Data Systems's overall quality score is 39 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 45 | 6.0%ROIC | 3.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 12 | -1.08xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 21 | -75.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 2.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | -0.79xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 54 | 5.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 17.7 pts |
How does TDS compare with similar companies?
The companies in telecommunications services closest to Telephone and Data Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. | $48.96 | $52.68 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $5.75 | $8.27 | +43.8% | Low evidence grade |
| ECHO EchoStar Corporation | $94.25 | $74.64 | -20.8% | Data under review |
| CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. | $109.29 | $163.19 | +49.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SHEN Shenandoah Telecommunications Company | $10.86 | $10.42 | -4.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CCOI Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | $8.46 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| GOGO Gogo Inc. | $2.11 | $2.30 | +9.0% | Low evidence grade |
| CMCSA Comcast Corporation | $21.57 | $28.22 | +30.8% | Undervalued |
All telecommunications services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does TDS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Telephone and Data Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 6 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How TDS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | -6.4% |
| 8 May 2026 | -4.8% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | -3.9% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | +0.6% |
| 11 Aug 2025 | +0.5% |
| 2 May 2025 | -8.8% |
| 21 Feb 2025 | -7.5% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | -5.6% |
Telephone and Data Systems at a glance
Telephone and Data Systems, Inc., a telecommunications company, provides communications services to residential, commercial, and wholesale customers in the United States. It operates through two segments: TDS Telecom and Array.
- Market value
- $3.8B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Telecommunications Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.52
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Telephone and Data Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TDS was $37.51. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $36.58, a change of -2.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Telephone and Data Systems's valuation
Is Telephone and Data Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TDS reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $36.58 a share against a last close of $35.39, a gap of +3.4%.
What is TDS's fair value?
$36.58 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $27.90 to $48.82.
What price range does the model give TDS?
$30.69 to $44.60 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Telephone and Data Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 6 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TDS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.8% around the report of 2 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TDS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.