NYSE: KEY · Regional Banks
KeyCorp (KEY) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values KeyCorp (KEY) at $20.85 a share. The stock last closed at $20.08, which puts the model's fair value 3.8% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. KeyCorp.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commercial Bank.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $20.85 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $21.31, so the fair value moved -2.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $17.49 to $25.42, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares KeyCorp with East West Bancorp, Inc., Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc., and First Horizon Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, ranged from -5.5% to +2.8%. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give KEY?
The calibrated range for KEY over 63 trading days is $17.49 to $25.42. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.29 to $26.20. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does KEY compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to KeyCorp in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF Regions Financial Corporation | $27.10 | $26.25 | -3.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $64.33 | $48.90 | -24.0% | Low evidence grade |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | $126.21 | $125.22 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $15.33 | $12.75 | -16.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MTB M&T Bank Corporation | $219.14 | $195.58 | -10.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | $96.09 | $88.45 | -8.0% | Fairly valued |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | $23.42 | $22.28 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $50.87 | $34.40 | -32.4% | Low evidence grade |
When does KEY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
KeyCorp's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How KEY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | -3.5% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | +1.1% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | +2.5% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | -4.3% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +2.8% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | -2.0% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | -5.5% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -2.0% |
KeyCorp at a glance
KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commercial Bank.
- Market value
- $22.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -27.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 1.10
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices KeyCorp on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for KEY was $21.31. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $20.85, a change of -2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about KeyCorp's valuation
Is KeyCorp stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts KEY's fair value at $20.85 a share against a last close of $20.08, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is KEY's fair value?
$20.85 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.29 to $26.20.
What price range does the model give KEY?
$17.49 to $25.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does KeyCorp report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KEY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.5% around the report of 21 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KEY is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.