NYSE: RF · Regional Banks
Regions Financial (RF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Regions Financial (RF) at $25.74 a share. The stock last closed at $27.10, which puts the model's fair value 5.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Regions Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Regions Financial Corporation (RF) operates as a financial holding company, delivering a comprehensive array of banking and related services to both individual consumers and corporate entities.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $25.74 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $26.25, and the fair value moved -1.9%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $21.48 to $31.20, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The business scores on quality against comparable companies including Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG), East West Bancorp, Inc. (EWBC), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB), Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (PNFP), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and First Horizon Corporation (FHN). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show changes such as -4.0% on 17 Jul 2026 and +1.4% on 17 Apr 2026, with a median size of 2.3% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give RF?
The calibrated range for RF over 63 trading days is $21.48 to $31.20. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $23.75 to $27.73. In 28% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does RF compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Regions Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEY KeyCorp | $20.08 | $20.44 | +1.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $64.33 | $48.51 | -24.6% | Overvalued |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | $126.21 | $124.65 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $15.33 | $12.58 | -17.9% | Overvalued |
| MTB M&T Bank Corporation | $219.14 | $193.00 | -11.9% | Fairly valued |
| PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | $96.09 | $88.22 | -8.2% | Fairly valued |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $50.87 | $34.90 | -31.4% | Overvalued |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | $23.42 | $22.30 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
When does RF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Regions Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How RF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2026 | -4.0% |
| 17 Apr 2026 | +1.4% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | -3.1% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | +3.0% |
| 18 Jul 2025 | +6.3% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | -0.4% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | +0.5% |
| 18 Oct 2024 | -1.5% |
Regions Financial at a glance
Regions Financial Corporation (RF) operates as a financial holding company, delivering a comprehensive array of banking and related services to both individual consumers and corporate entities.
- Market value
- $23.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -18.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.00
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Regions Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for RF was $26.25. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $25.74, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Regions Financial's valuation
Is Regions Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, RF reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $25.74 a share against a last close of $27.10, a gap of -5.0%.
What is RF's fair value?
$25.74 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $23.75 to $27.73.
What price range does the model give RF?
$21.48 to $31.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Regions Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.3% around the report of 18 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.