NYSE: CFG · Regional Banks
Citizens Financial Group (CFG) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Citizens Financial Group (CFG) at $48.90 a share. The stock last closed at $64.33, which puts the model's fair value 24.0% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) is the holding company for Citizens Bank, National Association, a major financial institution offering retail and commercial banking solutions across the United States.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $48.90 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was -1.6% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $49.67. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $41.03 to $59.62, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict was shown.
Faircurve's model compares Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) with East West Bancorp, Inc. (EWBC) and Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (PNFP). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, were: 16 Jul 2026 +1.8%, 16 Apr 2026 -1.1%, 21 Jan 2026 +7.4%, 15 Oct 2025 -6.6%, 17 Jul 2025 +3.4%, 16 Apr 2025 -1.8%, 17 Jan 2025 +3.2%, 16 Oct 2024 -3.1%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CFG?
The calibrated range for CFG over 63 trading days is $41.03 to $59.62. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $37.95 to $61.83. In 14% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CFG compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Citizens Financial Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $15.33 | $12.75 | -16.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MTB M&T Bank Corporation | $219.14 | $195.58 | -10.8% | Low evidence grade |
| RF Regions Financial Corporation | $27.10 | $26.25 | -3.1% | Low evidence grade |
| KEY KeyCorp | $20.08 | $20.85 | +3.8% | Low evidence grade |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | $126.21 | $125.22 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $50.87 | $34.40 | -32.4% | Low evidence grade |
| PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | $96.09 | $88.45 | -8.0% | Fairly valued |
| TFC Truist Financial Corporation | $46.45 | $43.98 | -5.3% | Low evidence grade |
When does CFG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Citizens Financial Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CFG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | +1.8% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | -1.1% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | +7.4% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | -6.6% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +3.4% |
| 16 Apr 2025 | -1.8% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | +3.2% |
| 16 Oct 2024 | -3.1% |
Citizens Financial Group at a glance
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) functions as the holding company for Citizens Bank, National Association, a major financial institution offering a comprehensive suite of retail and commercial banking solutions across the United States.
- Market value
- $27.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -17.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 1.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Citizens Financial Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CFG was $49.67. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $48.90, a change of -1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Citizens Financial Group's valuation
Is Citizens Financial Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CFG's fair value at $48.90 a share against a last close of $64.33, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CFG's fair value?
$48.90 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $37.95 to $61.83.
What price range does the model give CFG?
$41.03 to $59.62 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Citizens Financial Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CFG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.4% around the report of 21 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CFG is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.