NASDAQ: ODFL · Trucking
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) at $171.01 a share. The stock last closed at $180.48, which puts the model's fair value 5.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. serves as a prominent less-than-truckload freight carrier operating across the United States and North America.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $171.01 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $161.74, so the fair value moved +5.7%. The model built a calibrated range of $142.68 to $207.32, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 70 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with XPO Logistics, Inc., Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., Saia, Inc., Schneider National, Inc., RXO, Inc., and ArcBest Corp. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -7.9% to +6.7%, with a median size of 5.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ODFL?
The calibrated range for ODFL over 63 trading days is $142.68 to $207.32. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $142.63 to $202.95. In 40% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ODFL score on business quality?
Old Dominion Freight Line's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 25.4%ROIC | 8.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 45 | 1.02xFCF / net income | 1.03x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 34 | -5.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 1.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.15xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.90x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.2 pts |
How does ODFL compare with similar companies?
The companies in trucking closest to Old Dominion Freight Line in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $186.09 | $174.49 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | $66.76 | $73.42 | +10.0% | Fairly valued |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | $351.12 | $341.17 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | $32.89 | $38.56 | +17.2% | Undervalued |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | $23.38 | $17.89 | -23.5% | Overvalued |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | $132.61 | $125.41 | -5.4% | Fairly valued |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $35.35 | $41.37 | +17.0% | Low evidence grade |
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | $13.34 | $13.62 | +2.1% | Low evidence grade |
When does ODFL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Old Dominion Freight Line's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ODFL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -6.1% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -4.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +6.5% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +0.9% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -7.9% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +4.5% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +6.7% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -3.9% |
Old Dominion Freight Line at a glance
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America.
- Market value
- $37.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.92
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Old Dominion Freight Line on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ODFL was $161.74. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $171.01, a change of +5.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Old Dominion Freight Line's valuation
Is Old Dominion Freight Line stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ODFL reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $171.01 a share against a last close of $180.48, a gap of -5.2%.
What is ODFL's fair value?
$171.01 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $142.63 to $202.95.
What price range does the model give ODFL?
$142.68 to $207.32 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Old Dominion Freight Line report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ODFL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.9% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ODFL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.