NASDAQ: MBIN · Regional Banks
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) at $78.77 a share. The stock last closed at $49.95, which puts the model's fair value 57.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Merchants Bancorp.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Merchants Bancorp operates as a diversified financial services holding company across the United States. Its operations are organised into three primary divisions: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $78.77 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was -0.8% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $79.37. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $66.09 to $96.05, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The model compares Merchants Bancorp with Beacon Financial Corp. (BBT), Banner Corporation (BANR), WaFd, Inc. (WAFD), Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI), Customers Bancorp, Inc. (CUBI), OFG Bancorp (OFG), First Bancorp (FBNC), and NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB). The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 9.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MBIN?
The calibrated range for MBIN over 63 trading days is $66.09 to $96.05. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $64.97 to $94.14. In 97% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MBIN compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Merchants Bancorp in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBT Beacon Financial Corp. | $28.34 | $27.88 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| BANR Banner Corporation | $67.88 | $67.09 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
| WAFD WaFd, Inc. | $30.80 | $39.11 | +27.0% | Undervalued |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | $15.19 | $14.45 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | $75.47 | $108.67 | +44.0% | Undervalued |
| OFG OFG Bancorp | $51.29 | $65.45 | +27.6% | Undervalued |
| FBNC First Bancorp | $62.33 | $41.85 | -32.9% | Overvalued |
| NBTB NBT Bancorp Inc. | $51.53 | $43.24 | -16.1% | Overvalued |
When does MBIN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Merchants Bancorp's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 29 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 13.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 51 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MBIN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +12.2% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -9.6% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +14.5% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -1.9% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | -9.9% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | -7.7% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | +4.6% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -16.1% |
Merchants Bancorp at a glance
Merchants Bancorp operates as a diversified financial services holding company across the United States. Its operations are organized into three primary divisions: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking.
- Market value
- $2.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -47.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.42
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Merchants Bancorp on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MBIN was $79.37. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $78.77, a change of -0.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Merchants Bancorp's valuation
Is Merchants Bancorp stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MBIN reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $78.77 a share against a last close of $49.95, a gap of +57.7%.
What is MBIN's fair value?
$78.77 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $64.97 to $94.14.
What price range does the model give MBIN?
$66.09 to $96.05 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Merchants Bancorp report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MBIN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.1% around the report of 28 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MBIN is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.