NASDAQ: WAFD · Regional Banks
WaFd (WAFD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values WaFd (WAFD) at $41.28 a share. The stock last closed at $30.80, which puts the model's fair value 34.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. WaFd, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
WaFd, Inc. delivers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services, encompassing lending, deposit accounts, and insurance, primarily catering to individual consumers. It operates in the Financial Services and Regional Banks sectors.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $41.28 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $39.11, so the fair value moved +5.5%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.44 to $50.04, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade is High.
The model compares WaFd, Inc. with Merchants Bancorp (MBIN), Banner Corporation (BANR), Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI), Beacon Financial Corp. (BBT), OFG Bancorp (OFG), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF), Customers Bancorp, Inc. (CUBI), and The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK). Around its last eight earnings reports, the stock moved -0.7% on 16 Jul 2026, +8.5% on 16 Apr 2026, -2.0% on 15 Jan 2026, -2.8% on 16 Oct 2025, +1.0% on 17 Jul 2025, +8.9% on 11 Apr 2025, -5.7% on 16 Jan 2025, and -1.6% on 17 Oct 2024. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give WAFD?
The calibrated range for WAFD over 63 trading days is $34.44 to $50.04. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $36.64 to $46.10. In 98% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WAFD compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to WaFd in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | $49.95 | $78.18 | +56.5% | Undervalued |
| BANR Banner Corporation | $67.88 | $67.27 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | $15.19 | $14.07 | -7.4% | Fairly valued |
| BBT Beacon Financial Corp. | $28.34 | $27.14 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| OFG OFG Bancorp | $51.29 | $65.85 | +28.4% | Undervalued |
| FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | $20.56 | $20.00 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | $75.47 | $107.22 | +42.1% | Undervalued |
| TBBK The Bancorp, Inc. | $48.81 | $63.40 | +29.9% | Undervalued |
When does WAFD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
WaFd's next earnings report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How WAFD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | -0.7% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | +8.5% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | -2.0% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | -2.8% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +1.0% |
| 11 Apr 2025 | +8.9% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | -5.7% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -1.6% |
WaFd at a glance
WaFd, Inc. delivers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services, encompassing lending, deposit accounts, and insurance, primarily catering to individual consumers.
- Market value
- $2.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -43.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.47
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices WaFd on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WAFD was $39.11. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $41.28, a change of +5.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about WaFd's valuation
Is WaFd stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WAFD reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $41.28 a share against a last close of $30.80, a gap of +34.0%.
What is WAFD's fair value?
$41.28 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $36.64 to $46.10.
What price range does the model give WAFD?
$34.44 to $50.04 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does WaFd report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WAFD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.9% around the report of 11 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WAFD is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.