NYSE: MWA · Industrial Machinery
Mueller Water Products (MWA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Mueller Water Products (MWA) at $25.74 a share. The stock last closed at $21.66, which puts the model's fair value 18.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Mueller Water Products, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Mueller Water Products Inc. (MWA) provides products and services for water conveyance, distribution, and measurement in North America and internationally.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $25.74 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was +2.8% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $25.04. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $21.60 to $31.39, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was High.
The overall quality score was 61 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares the company with Standex International Corporation (SXI), Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI), Mirion Technologies, Inc. (MIR), Crane NXT, Co. (CXT), Franklin Electric Co., Inc. (FELE), ESAB Corporation (ESAB), and The Middleby Corporation (MIDD). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MWA?
The calibrated range for MWA over 63 trading days is $21.60 to $31.39. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $20.53 to $32.01. In 74% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MWA score on business quality?
Mueller Water Products's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 21.2%ROIC | 9.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 28 | 0.81xFCF / net income | 1.25x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 39 | 8.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | -0.12xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.61x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 53 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does MWA compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Mueller Water Products in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SXI Standex International Corporation | $288.59 | $237.37 | -17.7% | Overvalued |
| KAI Kadant Inc. | $268.83 | $297.10 | +10.5% | Data under review |
| BMI Badger Meter, Inc. | $127.77 | $132.83 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. | $14.60 | $15.53 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| CXT Crane NXT, Co. | $48.78 | $55.80 | +14.4% | Fairly valued |
| FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $98.65 | $102.19 | +3.6% | Fairly valued |
| ESAB ESAB Corporation | $69.90 | $74.41 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | $104.57 | $126.71 | +21.2% | Undervalued |
When does MWA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Mueller Water Products's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How MWA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +1.8% |
| 5 May 2026 | -0.3% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +1.3% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -8.2% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +4.0% |
| 5 May 2025 | -6.1% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +17.3% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +6.2% |
Mueller Water Products at a glance
Mueller Water Products Inc. (MWA) is a leading provider of products and services crucial for the conveyance, distribution, and precise measurement of water throughout North America and internationally.
- Market value
- $3.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.59
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Mueller Water Products on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MWA was $25.04. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $25.74, a change of +2.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Mueller Water Products's valuation
Is Mueller Water Products stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MWA reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $25.74 a share against a last close of $21.66, a gap of +18.8%.
What is MWA's fair value?
$25.74 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $20.53 to $32.01.
What price range does the model give MWA?
$21.60 to $31.39 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Mueller Water Products report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MWA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.3% around the report of 4 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MWA is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.