NYSE: ESAB · Industrial Machinery
ESAB (ESAB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values ESAB (ESAB) at $73.96 a share. The stock last closed at $76.05, which puts the model's fair value 2.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. ESAB Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $69.82 to $73.96 (+5.9%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $76.05 is 2.7% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ESAB?
The calibrated range for ESAB over 63 trading days is $64.23 to $93.60. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ESAB's own options imply (57% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $55.66 to $94.56. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
ESAB Corporation makes industrial consumables and advanced equipment for cutting, joining and automated welding, along with gas control systems.
Faircurve's model puts ESAB's fair value at $73.96 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is up 5.9% from $69.82 at the previous run on 24 Oct 2026. The model gives this reason: "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $64.23 to $93.60. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence High, based on how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
ESAB scores 44 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Stability is the highest at 88, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.6 pts against a peer median of 1.3 pts. Balance sheet is the lowest at 24, with net debt to EBITDA of 4.65x against a peer median of 2.11x. The model compares ESAB with Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI), Franklin Electric Co., Inc. (FELE), Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA), The Middleby Corporation (MIDD), AAON, Inc. (AAON), Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) and JBT Marel Corporation (JBTM).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ESAB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ESAB's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ESAB's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ESAB
How does ESAB score on business quality?
ESAB's overall quality score is 44 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 34 | 7.4%ROIC | 9.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 48 | 1.14xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 37 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 51 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 24 | 4.65xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.11x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does ESAB compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to ESAB in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI Badger Meter, Inc. | $152.58 | $145.74 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $100.96 | $88.04 | -12.8% | Fairly valued |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. | $19.05 | $17.72 | -7.0% | Low evidence grade |
| MWA Mueller Water Products, Inc. | $23.57 | $25.52 | +8.3% | Fairly valued |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | $122.73 | $126.32 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
| AAON AAON, Inc. | $69.08 | $70.25 | +1.7% | Fairly valued |
| CXT Crane NXT, Co. | $60.04 | $67.59 | +12.6% | Fairly valued |
| JBTM JBT Marel Corporation | $118.06 | $104.54 | -11.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ESAB, the peer-implied price, is $80.55 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
ESAB at a glance
ESAB Corporation specializes in the creation, production, and distribution of industrial consumables and advanced equipment for cutting, joining, and automated welding processes, in addition to gas control systems.
- Market value
- $4.3B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 1.54
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ESAB was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ESAB on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ESAB was $69.82. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $73.96, a change of +5.9%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ESAB's valuation
Is ESAB stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ESAB reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $73.96 a share against a last close of $76.05, a gap of -2.7%.
What is ESAB's fair value?
$73.96 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $55.66 to $94.56.
What price range does the model give ESAB?
$64.23 to $93.60 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has ESAB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.6% around the report of 29 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ESAB is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ESAB
The model holds no idea open on ESAB today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ESAB with their outcomes. A free account is enough.