NYSE: NPK · Aerospace & Defense
National Presto Industries (NPK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values National Presto Industries (NPK) at $239.80 a share. The stock last closed at $150.73, which puts the model's fair value 59.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. National Presto Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
National Presto Industries, Inc., established in 1905 and headquartered in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, primarily serves the North American market through its diverse operations. It is in the Industrials, Aerospace & Defense sector.
Faircurve's model on 2 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $239.80 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +3.8% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $231.05. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $201.19 to $292.39, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 71 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with AAR Corp., Mercury Systems, Inc., VSE Corporation, Hexcel Corporation, AeroVironment, Inc., and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NPK?
The calibrated range for NPK over 63 trading days is $201.19 to $292.39. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $151.10 to $359.73. In 81% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NPK score on business quality?
National Presto Industries's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 83 | 10.2%ROIC | 3.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 39 | 0.62xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 92 | 29.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | -0.11xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.57x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 87 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does NPK compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to National Presto Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR AAR Corp. | $102.51 | $141.00 | +37.5% | Undervalued |
| AMTM Amentum Holdings, Inc. | $18.14 | $24.55 | +35.3% | Low evidence grade |
| MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | $84.87 | $78.13 | -7.9% | Fairly valued |
| VSEC VSE Corporation | $167.28 | $166.43 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| HXL Hexcel Corporation | $86.41 | $91.46 | +5.8% | Fairly valued |
| SARO StandardAero, Inc. | $21.05 | $34.72 | +64.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. | $140.82 | $151.63 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $43.07 | $40.49 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
When does NPK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
National Presto Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NPK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | +4.6% |
| 15 May 2026 | +3.3% |
| 13 Mar 2026 | +5.1% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -3.7% |
| 8 Aug 2025 | -0.1% |
| 7 May 2025 | +11.0% |
| 14 Mar 2025 | +0.5% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | +0.5% |
National Presto Industries at a glance
National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK), a company established in 1905 and headquartered in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, primarily serves the North American market through its diverse operations.
- Market value
- $1.0B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Beta to the US market
- 0.58
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices National Presto Industries on the value of the whole business against its operating profit, compared with where that ratio has sat before (EV/EBITDA against its own history), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NPK was $231.05. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $239.80, a change of +3.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about National Presto Industries's valuation
Is National Presto Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NPK reads as Undervalued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $239.80 a share against a last close of $150.73, a gap of +59.1%.
What is NPK's fair value?
$239.80 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $151.10 to $359.73.
What price range does the model give NPK?
$201.19 to $292.39 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does National Presto Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NPK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.0% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NPK is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.