NYSE: PFS · Regional Banks
Provident Financial Services (PFS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Provident Financial Services (PFS) at $23.93 a share. The stock last closed at $22.58, which puts the model's fair value 6.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Provident Financial Services, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Provident Financial Services, Inc. functions as the parent company for Provident Bank, delivering a broad spectrum of financial products and services to individuals, families, and businesses across the United States.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $23.93 a share on 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $24.25, so the fair value moved -1.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $20.08 to $29.18, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business scores on quality against comparable companies, which are First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB), Bank of Hawaii Corporation (BOH), BankUnited, Inc. (BKU), CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF), Community Bank System, Inc. (CBU), and FB Financial Corporation (FBK). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from +7.9% to -4.4%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 3.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PFS?
The calibrated range for PFS over 63 trading days is $20.08 to $29.18. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $18.58 to $30.26. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PFS compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Provident Financial Services in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | $25.26 | $23.23 | -8.0% | Overvalued |
| BOH Bank of Hawaii Corporation | $69.28 | $72.00 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
| BKU BankUnited, Inc. | $43.38 | $45.97 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | $32.68 | $20.95 | -35.9% | Low evidence grade |
| BANC Banc of California, Inc. | $17.74 | $22.76 | +28.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CVBF CVB Financial Corp. | $22.28 | $15.26 | -31.5% | Overvalued |
| CBU Community Bank System, Inc. | $60.69 | $40.50 | -33.3% | Overvalued |
| FBK FB Financial Corporation | $53.42 | $46.37 | -13.2% | Fairly valued |
When does PFS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Provident Financial Services's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How PFS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +2.9% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -1.3% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +7.9% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -2.2% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +4.2% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +5.0% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -4.4% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -1.5% |
Provident Financial Services at a glance
Provident Financial Services, Inc. functions as the parent company for Provident Bank, delivering a broad spectrum of financial products and services to individuals, families, and businesses across the United States.
- Market value
- $3.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -33.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.64
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Provident Financial Services on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PFS was $24.25. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $23.93, a change of -1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Provident Financial Services's valuation
Is Provident Financial Services stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PFS reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $23.93 a share against a last close of $22.58, a gap of +6.0%.
What is PFS's fair value?
$23.93 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $18.58 to $30.26.
What price range does the model give PFS?
$20.08 to $29.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Provident Financial Services report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PFS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.9% around the report of 27 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PFS is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.