NASDAQ: FHB · Regional Banks
First Hawaiian (FHB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values First Hawaiian (FHB) at $23.80 a share. The stock last closed at $25.38, which puts the model's fair value 6.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. First Hawaiian, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $25.47 to $23.80 (-6.6%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $25.38 is 6.2% above it: Overvalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 29 Jan 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FHB?
The calibrated range for FHB over 63 trading days is $19.28 to $28.43. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.91 to $25.69. In 27% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
The model's fair value for First Hawaiian, Inc. on 31 Oct 2026 is $23.80 a share. First Hawaiian, Inc. is the holding company for First Hawaiian Bank, which provides a wide range of financial services to individual consumers and commercial entities throughout the United States.
Faircurve's model gives this figure as the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $25.47, so the fair value moved -6.6%. In the model's own words, "The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $19.28 to $28.43. It is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. The range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. For banks, insurers and mortgage REITs, the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model compares First Hawaiian with six companies that each have a fair value of their own on the site: BankUnited, Inc., Provident Financial Services, Inc., Park National Corporation, Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida, Community Bank System, Inc. and Customers Bancorp, Inc. Two further comparable companies, Banc of California, Inc. and Simmons First National Corporation, had no verdict on this date. Faircurve first valued First Hawaiian on 11 Jul 2026. This note does not include quality scores against peer medians, as those figures are not available here.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does FHB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
First Hawaiian's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FHB's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
How does FHB compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to First Hawaiian in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKU BankUnited, Inc. | $43.25 | $46.26 | +7.0% | Fairly valued |
| PFS Provident Financial Services, Inc. | $23.13 | $24.90 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| PRK Park National Corporation | $176.91 | $141.56 | -20.0% | Overvalued |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | $33.45 | $22.80 | -31.8% | Overvalued |
| BANC Banc of California, Inc. | $18.37 | $23.49 | +27.9% | Low evidence grade |
| CBU Community Bank System, Inc. | $63.80 | $42.91 | -32.7% | Overvalued |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | $85.47 | $107.85 | +26.2% | Undervalued |
| SFNC Simmons First National Corporation | $23.51 | $19.22 | -18.2% | Low evidence grade |
First Hawaiian at a glance
First Hawaiian, Inc. operates as the holding company for First Hawaiian Bank, providing an extensive array of financial services to both individual consumers and commercial entities throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $3.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -21.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.54
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. FHB was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices First Hawaiian on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FHB was $25.47. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $23.80, a change of -6.6%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about First Hawaiian's valuation
Is First Hawaiian stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FHB reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $23.80 a share against a last close of $25.38, a gap of -6.2%.
What is FHB's fair value?
$23.80 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.91 to $25.69.
What price range does the model give FHB?
$19.28 to $28.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does First Hawaiian report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FHB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.7% around the report of 24 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FHB is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FHB
The model holds no idea open on FHB today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FHB with their outcomes. A free account is enough.