The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $225.92 · Current price: $199.73 · Verdict: Fairly Valued
The Verdict on PGR
Despite its current price of $195.88, Monte Carlo simulations suggest Progressive Corporation (PGR) is "Fairly Valued." Our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $161.56, representing a -17.5% gap from its current trading level. While this median point suggests potential downside in a typical scenario, the broader probabilistic distribution of outcomes, derived from thousands of simulations, aligns with an overall assessment of "Fairly Valued" for PGR. Investors should recognize that the P50 is one data point within a spectrum of potential values.
How PGR stacks up against Financial Services
Within the Financial Services sector, Progressive Corporation (PGR) currently holds an "unrated" quality tier regarding its operational and financial health. This status suggests that while key performance indicators have been assessed, they do not present a distinct advantage or disadvantage when compared to its sector peers. This neutral quality assessment contributes to the "Fairly Valued" verdict, meaning the company's underlying fundamentals, as reflected by its unrated status, do not strongly warrant a significant premium or discount relative to the Monte Carlo-derived median fair value of $161.56, nor do they significantly influence the market's assessment at the $195.88 current price.
What this means for investors
For investors considering Progressive (PGR), the "Fairly Valued" verdict, despite the -17.5% difference between the current price of $195.88 and the median fair value of $161.56, indicates a balanced risk-reward profile based on our Monte Carlo models. While a downside scenario might see prices aligning closer to the median, other probabilistic outcomes within the simulation prevent an "overvalued" or "undervalued" categorization. To understand the full bear and bull distribution and track PGR's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for FairCurve.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PGR overvalued or undervalued right now?
Progressive (PGR) currently trades at $195.88, while our Monte Carlo median fair value is $161.56. Overall, PGR is assessed as Fairly Valued.
What is the bear case and bull case for PGR?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including bear-case (P10) and bull-case (P90) targets and the probability of upside, is exclusively available with a free FairCurve account.
How does FairCurve calculate PGR's fair value?
FairCurve calculates Progressive (PGR)'s fair value using Monte Carlo simulations, modeling thousands of forward scenarios for the company's financials to derive a probabilistic range of outcomes.
How can I track PGR's fair value as it changes?
Add Progressive (PGR) to your free FairCurve watchlist for daily fair-value updates and instant re-valuation whenever new earnings or significant fundamental data are released.