NYSE: PGR · Property & Casualty Insurance
Progressive (PGR) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Progressive (PGR) at $216.15 a share. The stock last closed at $210.31, which puts the model's fair value 2.8% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Progressive Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States.
Faircurve's model valued The Progressive Corporation at $216.15 a share on 26 Sep 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's fair value moved -17.9% since the previous run on 12 Sep 2026, which gave $263.12. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $195.88 to $238.14, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business scores on quality against The Travelers Companies, Inc., W. R. Berkley Corporation, Assurant, Inc., and American Financial Group, Inc. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 2.8%, ignoring direction. For example, on 15 Jul 2026, the move was -9.2%, and on 15 Apr 2026, it was +3.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PGR?
The calibrated range for PGR over 63 trading days is $195.88 to $238.14. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PGR's own options imply (28% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $167.84 to $275.93. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PGR compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Progressive in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB Chubb Limited | $330.89 | $302.23 | -8.7% | Low evidence grade |
| TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $360.38 | $427.40 | +18.6% | Undervalued |
| ALL The Allstate Corporation | $223.74 | $392.91 | +75.6% | Gap wider than 60% |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation | $161.95 | $159.06 | -1.8% | Low evidence grade |
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $68.98 | $59.43 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
| L Loews Corporation | $106.03 | $96.99 | -8.5% | Low evidence grade |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $267.32 | $202.11 | -24.4% | Overvalued |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $139.10 | $146.99 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PGR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Progressive's next earnings report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PGR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.0% over one month.
How PGR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | -9.2% |
| 15 Apr 2026 | +3.5% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +0.1% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | -7.8% |
| 16 Jul 2025 | +2.1% |
| 16 Apr 2025 | -3.9% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +1.7% |
| 15 Oct 2024 | +1.4% |
Progressive at a glance
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States.
- Market value
- $119.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- -0.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Progressive on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PGR was $263.12. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $216.15, a change of -17.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Progressive's valuation
Is Progressive stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PGR's fair value at $216.15 a share against a last close of $210.31, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PGR's fair value?
$216.15 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $167.84 to $275.93.
What price range does the model give PGR?
$195.88 to $238.14 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Progressive report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PGR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -9.2% around the report of 15 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PGR is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.