NYSE: AFG · Property & Casualty Insurance
American Financial Group (AFG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values American Financial Group (AFG) at $179.12 a share. The stock last closed at $153.00, which puts the model's fair value 17.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. American Financial Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $172.12 to $179.12 (+4.1%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $153.00 is 17.1% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 8% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AFG?
The calibrated range for AFG over 63 trading days is $141.30 to $168.71. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AFG's own options imply (27% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $165.27 to $192.98. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is a property and casualty insurance company. It operates as an insurance holding company, providing a broad array of property and casualty insurance solutions across the United States.
Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $179.12 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $172.12, so the fair value moved +4.1%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $141.30 to $168.71. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality scores for the business, so this note cannot compare it with peers on quality. The model compares the company with W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) and Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI), each of which has a fair value of its own on the site. Six other comparable companies have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AFG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
American Financial Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 3 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 16 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AFG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.7% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AFG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AFG
How does AFG compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to American Financial Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $269.67 | $183.17 | -32.1% | Low evidence grade |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $296.13 | $223.66 | -24.5% | Low evidence grade |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $247.31 | $262.74 | +6.2% | Low evidence grade |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $383.55 | $314.34 | -18.0% | Low evidence grade |
| L Loews Corporation | $109.97 | $110.96 | +0.9% | Low evidence grade |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $66.84 | $47.48 | -29.0% | Low evidence grade |
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $75.12 | $65.63 | -12.6% | Fairly valued |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $100.57 | $106.58 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
American Financial Group at a glance
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) operates as an insurance holding company, specializing in providing a broad array of property and casualty insurance solutions across the United States.
- Market value
- $12.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. AFG was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices American Financial Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AFG was $172.12. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $179.12, a change of +4.1%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about American Financial Group's valuation
Is American Financial Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AFG reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $179.12 a share against a last close of $153.00, a gap of +17.1%.
What is AFG's fair value?
$179.12 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $165.27 to $192.98.
What price range does the model give AFG?
$141.30 to $168.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does American Financial Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AFG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.7% around the report of 4 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AFG is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AFG
The model holds no idea open on AFG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AFG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.