Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $240.92 · Current price: $279.48 · Verdict: Fairly Valued
The Verdict on AIZ
Our Monte Carlo simulations indicate Assurant (AIZ) is Overvalued at its current market price. With AIZ trading at $279.48, our median fair value (P50) stands at $240.92. This implies a notable -13.8% divergence from our fair value estimate, suggesting the market is currently pricing in more optimism than our models justify for the Financial Services sector player. Investors seeking value in the current environment should note this significant premium, as our simulations suggest a downward adjustment is more likely to align with fundamental expectations.
How AIZ stacks up against Financial Services
Assurant operates within the Financial Services sector, a segment often subject to nuanced valuation based on risk profiles and capital requirements. While our models place AIZ's median fair value at $240.92, the current price of $279.48 reflects a premium relative to this baseline. The -13.8% gap indicates that, within its sector, AIZ's market valuation exceeds what our probabilistic framework suggests is warranted. Furthermore, the company's quality tier is currently unrated, which, when combined with the -13.8% premium, suggests a cautious approach may be prudent for those considering AIZ relative to its sector peers.
What this means for investors
For investors tracking AIZ, the current $279.48 represents a significant premium over our median fair value of $240.92. This -13.8% difference, derived from thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, suggests limited upside potential from present levels. While the quality tier is unrated, the valuation disparity remains a primary concern for new capital allocation. The FairCurve analysis points to a scenario where the market price has moved ahead of intrinsic value. To understand the full probabilistic distribution, including potential bear and bull case scenarios, and to track AIZ's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIZ overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, Assurant (AIZ) is currently overvalued. Its current market price of $279.48 is above our median fair value estimate of $240.92.
What is the bear case and bull case for AIZ?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including bear (P10) and bull (P90) targets, alongside the probability of achieving upside, is exclusively available to users with a free FairCurve account. We do not provide specific dollar values for these scenarios publicly.
How does FairCurve calculate AIZ's fair value?
FairCurve calculates AIZ's fair value through advanced Monte Carlo simulations. This involves running thousands of forward-looking scenarios to probabilistically determine a robust median fair value estimate.
How can I track AIZ's fair value as it changes?
You can add AIZ to your free FairCurve watchlist. This provides daily fair-value updates and triggers an instant re-valuation of the company whenever new earnings or significant fundamental data are released.