NYSE: AIZ · Property & Casualty Insurance
Assurant (AIZ) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Assurant (AIZ) at $202.11 a share. The stock last closed at $267.32, which puts the model's fair value 24.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Assurant, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Assurant, Inc. operates globally, delivering essential lifestyle and housing solutions designed to secure, assist, and connect consumer acquisitions across diverse markets including North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $202.11 a share. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $242.10, so the fair value moved -16.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $169.57 to $246.44. This range is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and is calibrated weekly against realised prices, 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The model compares Assurant, Inc. with American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG), Old Republic International Corporation (ORI), Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL), and W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 5.0%, ignoring direction. The moves were +6.8% on 4 Aug 2026, +3.3% on 5 May 2026, -8.2% on 10 Feb 2026, +2.9% on 4 Nov 2025, +11.2% on 5 Aug 2025, +0.3% on 6 May 2025, -2.4% on 11 Feb 2025, and +7.9% on 5 Nov 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AIZ?
The calibrated range for AIZ over 63 trading days is $169.57 to $246.44. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $164.92 to $243.96. In 11% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AIZ compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Assurant in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $139.10 | $146.99 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $221.09 | $147.23 | -33.4% | Low evidence grade |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | $38.06 | $41.56 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| L Loews Corporation | $106.03 | $96.99 | -8.5% | Low evidence grade |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $219.43 | $200.38 | -8.7% | Low evidence grade |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $329.72 | $280.07 | -15.1% | Overvalued |
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $68.98 | $59.43 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation | $161.95 | $159.06 | -1.8% | Low evidence grade |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AIZ report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Assurant's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AIZ moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +6.8% |
| 5 May 2026 | +3.3% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | -8.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +2.9% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +11.2% |
| 6 May 2025 | +0.3% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | -2.4% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +7.9% |
Assurant at a glance
Assurant, Inc. operates globally, delivering essential lifestyle and housing solutions designed to secure, assist, and connect consumer acquisitions across diverse markets including North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
- Market value
- $13.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.41
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Assurant on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AIZ was $242.10. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $202.11, a change of -16.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Assurant's valuation
Is Assurant stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AIZ reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $202.11 a share against a last close of $267.32, a gap of -24.4%.
What is AIZ's fair value?
$202.11 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $164.92 to $243.96.
What price range does the model give AIZ?
$169.57 to $246.44 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Assurant report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AIZ moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.2% around the report of 5 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AIZ is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.