NYSE: POST · Packaged Foods
Post Holdings (POST) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Post Holdings (POST) at $90.07 a share. The stock last closed at $83.12, which puts the model's fair value 8.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Post Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $87.63 to $90.07 (+2.8%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $83.12 is 8.4% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 19 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 11% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give POST?
The calibrated range for POST over 63 trading days is $74.17 to $95.61. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that POST's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.31 to $159.32. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Post Holdings, Inc. is a holding company in the consumer packaged goods industry, operating in the United States and abroad.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Post Holdings at $90.07 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $87.63, so the fair value moved +2.8%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $74.17 to $95.61. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is.
Post Holdings scores 61 out of 100 overall on quality, the model's composite of six factors, against comparable companies. Earnings quality stands out at 95, with FCF / net income at 1.89x. Capital discipline scores 81, with net buybacks at 32.6% of market value against a peer median of 0.3%. The balance sheet scores lowest at 26, with net debt / EBITDA at 4.40x against a peer median of 5.30x. Growth quality scores 47, with trailing revenue growth of 3.0% against a peer median of -2.8%. The model compares the company with nine companies, including Freshpet, Inc., Campbell Soup Company and Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc., each with a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does POST report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Post Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 3 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 44 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. POST's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.1% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across POST's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in POST
How does POST score on business quality?
Post Holdings's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 53 | 6.1%ROIC | 5.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 1.89xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 47 | 3.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 81 | 32.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 26 | 4.40xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 60 | 2.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does POST compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Post Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $69.60 | $67.18 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $46.35 | $53.45 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | $39.87 | $42.57 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $96.78 | $106.41 | +10.0% | Fairly valued |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | $21.96 | $19.81 | -9.8% | Fairly valued |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $27.28 | $32.05 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $14.41 | $14.13 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $54.92 | $55.08 | +0.3% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for POST, the peer-implied price, is $124.62 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Post Holdings at a glance
Post Holdings, Inc. functions as a prominent holding company within the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, conducting business both domestically in the United States and across international markets.
- Market value
- $3.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Post Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for POST was $87.63. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $90.07, a change of +2.8%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Post Holdings's valuation
Is Post Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts POST's fair value at $90.07 a share against a last close of $83.12, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is POST's fair value?
$90.07 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.31 to $159.32.
What price range does the model give POST?
$74.17 to $95.61 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Post Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has POST moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.8% around the report of 6 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for POST is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on POST
The model holds no idea open on POST today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on POST with their outcomes. A free account is enough.